Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
131 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
MCS FROM THIS MORNING AS WAS PROGGED FROM THE HRRR. WHILE CLOUD
COVER HAS TEMPERED INSTABILITY A BIT...CAPE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVER WESTERN PA. THIS AND THE INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT STRONG-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS
UNIDIRECTIONAL...INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT AND BOWING
SEGMENTS ALONG THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE. THIS THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AN
ENHANCED WIND THREAT OUTLINED BY SPC OVER NW PA. WHILE WIND WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE LINE THIS AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN
THE 1.50-1.75 RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. CONSIDERING ITS LATER TIMING...DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WITH IT...BUT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WEDS NIGHT
INTO THURS WITH DRYING EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS THURS
AND FRI COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH GETS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA SAT AS A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY DRY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES FOR SUN. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONVERGING ON A
SINGLE SOLN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THEY DO DEPICT THE FRONT
REINFORCING THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THIS
REGIME...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE TROF.
TRENDED TEMPS A BIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND
CONTINUED WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC POPS...ORIENTING HIGHER CHC POPS
ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REDEVELOPMENT OF A BKN LN OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN
AS A CDFNT ADVNS ACRS THE RGN...WITH A PD OF AT LEAST MVFR RSTRNS
AND GUSTY WNDS. EXP A LT AFTN/EVE FROPA WITH GENL VFR CONDS TO
FOLLOW.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN SCT TSTMS WED WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-091715-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.