Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1237 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE STARTS TO COME INTO THE OFFICE THIS
OVERNIGHT...A FEW THINGS ARE BECOMING QUITE CLEAR WITH REGARD TO
THE ONGOING SITUATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET STREAK CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING CURVATURE OF THE FEATURE WILL FAVOR
ADDITIONAL AGEOSTROPIC SUPPORT FOR ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH
SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES AND VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED IN
RATHER CONSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS
VERY HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL PWATS...A 00Z KPBZ SOUNDING THAT REVEALED
AMPLE INSTABILITY EVEN BEHIND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON'S SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK...VASTLY DECREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
VECTORS PER GUIDANCE...AND A CONTINUATION OF AMPLE MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY FROM THE ACTUAL SOUNDING RIGHT STRAIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON REVEAL A FAIRLY COHERENT SHIFT IN CONCERN FROM
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. LUCKILY
ENOUGH...THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION WAS RATHER TRANSIENT...SO
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE DO NOT REFLECT ANY AREAS OF
INCREASED CONCERN AT THE OFFSET...HOWEVER LINEAR TRAINING
CONVECTION IS ALREADY APPARENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN WEST VIRGINIA AND IS ALIGNED LENGTHWISE PARALLEL TO THE
MEAN MID-LEVEL FLOW. AS SUCH...THIS CONVECTION TRAJECTORY AND
ORIENTATION IS LIKELY TO VARY QUITE LITTLE IN ITS MEANDER
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT A BAND
OF TRAINING CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCRUTINY WILL BE GIVEN TO THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL
SUITES BEFORE ANY WATCH DECISIONS ARE MADE...HOWEVER POPS AND
ESPECIALLY QPF WERE INCREASED VASTLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA FOR
THE NEXT 18 HOURS. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONT THU-FRI AS MIDWESTERN SHRTWV TROF FINALLY
LIFTS OUT. PCPN WILL EXHIBIT A LULL LATE THU NGT-FRI MRNG BUT WILL
REINVIGORATE ON FRI AS CDFNT SURGES SEWD AND DISPLACES MSTR EWD.
POPS WERE INCRD COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.

SFC HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN SAT AND SAT NGT. GENLY CLR SKIES
AND TEMPS IN THE MID 70S-NR 80 XPCD WITH NO PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
AND ALLOW THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS TRYING TO BRING
THE REMNANTS OF AN OPENING CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN ZONAL FLOW INTO MID
WEEK. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY WITH A RETURN OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TSTMS ARE EXPD TO EXIT THE RGN THIS EVE. MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN FOG
AND STRATUS ARE EXPD TO DVLP IN AMPLE LLVL MOISTURE. EXP A GRDL
RTN TO VFR THU MRNG...THEN ADDNL SHWR AND TSTMS ARE EXPD TO DVLP
AS A SLOW MOVG UPR TROF ADVNS TWD THE RGN. INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR THIS ACTIVITY UNTIL TIMING/COVG CAN BE
FINE TUNED.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OCNL RSTRNS ARE EXPD THRU FRI AS SLOW MOVG LOW PRES CROSSES THE
RGN. RSTRNS ARE PSBL MON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APCHS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
939 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N FREEPORT            40.71N  79.68W
06/11/2014                   ARMSTRONG          PA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401501

XX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
941 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE GOOD INTENT        40.06N  80.42W
06/11/2014                   WASHINGTON         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON BURNSVILLE RIDGE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401502

AMILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
950 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W PLEASANT GROVE      40.08N  80.41W
06/11/2014                   WASHINGTON         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOCKING ROADWAY ON BURNSVILLE RIDGE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1401503

AMILLER