Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

034 
WGUS51 KPBZ 201301
FFWPBZ
OHC019-157-201615-
/O.EXT.KPBZ.FF.W.0010.000000T0000Z-140820T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
901 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CARROLL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
  NORTHERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 853 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING       
  CONTINUES IN BOTH CARROLL AND TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES.
  NUMEROUS ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN.    
  ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS COME TO AN END FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...UP   
  TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS A PORTION OF THE     
  WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE
  MECHANICSTOWN...MALVERN...BOLIVAR AND AUGUSTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HIGH WATER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE
NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4064 8166 4065 8149 4067 8145 4066 8140
      4066 8125 4070 8124 4073 8104 4072 8092
      4048 8095 4042 8144 4044 8168

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
429 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE LOW SPINNING OVER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY...PUSHING A WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD ACROSS PBZ CWA.  FRONT HAS AIDED REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA
BEHIND INITIAL COMPLEX WHICH HAS WEAKENED.  HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN
A FEW SPOTS IN OHIO...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.  HANGING ON TO
LIKELY POPS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN DURING THE LATE MORNING.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8
INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL.  TOUGH TO PINPOINT
AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WATER PROBLEMS.  WILL
HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR
PROFILE.  TRIED TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

ACTIVITY DECREASES SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.  WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE IN
A SHORT DRY PERIOD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY RAMPS UP
AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A WEAK SFC
LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THURS THROUGH FRI WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ALONG IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP THURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
AROUND MIDDAY. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR TO STAY
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THURS...OVER SRN OH...WHERE SPC HAS INCLUDED
A SEE TEXT PORTION OF THE DAY TWO OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z NAM
SHOWS AROUND 1500J/KG SFC CAPE AND 30-40KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN OUR
AREA. THE CORE OF THE H5 JET REMAINS OVER SWRN OH. COULD EXPECT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECTING TO SEE A DIURNAL LULL LATER THURS INTO EARLY FRI...BUT
WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL EXIST...MAINLY INTO ERN OH. FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD OVER THE MS VALLEY...A SFC LOW LIFTS THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A WAVE AT H7 WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AGAIN
FRI...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH CHC POPS FOCUSED ON THE EARLY
EVENING TIMING OF THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF. PWAT VALUES MAX OUT AROUND 2"
FRIDAY THROUGH ERN OH AND NRN WV ALONG THE CORRIDOR WHERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE 00Z NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE IN THE 20-30KT RANGE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE
HIGHLY EFFICIENT AND ANY TRAINING COULD LEAD TO WATER PROBLEMS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY
WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE LOST A LITTLE BIT OF PUNCH BUT CONTINUE TO
WORK THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OUT AHEAD OF RAIN
IS PRODUCING A 20-30 KNOT GUST AS IT MOVES THROUGH...AND HAVE
TRIED TO HANDLE THIS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR/SPOTTY IFR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS RAIN BATCH AS IT ACCOMPANIES A
SHORTWAVE. KEPT VCSH BEHIND THE MAIN BATCH WITH REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS OHIO.

A BRIEF BREAK IN RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z OR SO
LATER THIS MORNING. THEN...DIURNAL INSTABILITY BUILDUP WILL ALLOW
SHRA/TSRA TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS MENTION AS IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND TIMING...ALTHOUGH BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE. ACTIVITY STARTS TO CALM DOWN A
BIT AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
356 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-210800-
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-
FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER-
356 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. IF ANY LOCATION GETS HIT BY
REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE
MORE PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.