Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Butler County, MO, Carter County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

034 
WWUS43 KPAH 021814
WSWPAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

ILZ075>078-080-021915-
/O.CAN.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE
1214 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

$$

ILZ092-KYZ001-002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-MOZ108>112-
114-030215-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
ALEXANDER-FULTON-HICKMAN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-
CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAIRO...HICKMAN...CLINTON...MAYFIELD...
BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1214 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.
  LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL
  AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$

ILZ090-091-093-094-KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018>020-030215-
/O.CON.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
POPE-HARDIN-PULASKI-MASSAC-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-
CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...MOUND CITY...
METROPOLIS...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...
MARION...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN
1214 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET.
  LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL
  AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET OR
ICE ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ081>089-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-100-107-030215-
/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...
VIENNA...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...
BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN
1214 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
  SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

796 
WWUS43 KPAH 022053
WSWPAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MOZ100-107-030500-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
WAYNE MO-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN
253 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 
  SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY 
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ090>094-KYZ001>022-MOZ108>112-114-030500-
/O.CON.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-
BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-
LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...
SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
253 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SLEET. 
  LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL 
  AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET OR
ICE ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ081>089-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-030500-
/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...
VIENNA...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...
BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU
253 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 
  SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY 
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

729 
WWUS43 KPAH 030401
WSWPAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1001 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

MOZ100-107>110-030515-
/O.CAN.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...
POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD
1001 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.

$$

ILZ081>089-INZ081-082-085-086-MOZ076-086-087-030515-
/O.CAN.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-
UNION IL-JOHNSON-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-
CAPE GIRARDEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...
VIENNA...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...
PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU
1001 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS HAVE NOW MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.

$$

ILZ090>094-KYZ001>022-MOZ111-112-114-030900-
/O.CON.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-
BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-
LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1001 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...AND UP
  TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
  SLEET FARTHER SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET OR
ICE ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

INZ087-088-030900-
/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
WARRICK-SPENCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT
1001 PM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

* AMOUNTS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 
  SLEET. LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY 
  HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

761 
WWUS43 KPAH 030853
WSWPAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
253 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014

ILZ090>094-KYZ001>022-MOZ111-112-114-031000-
/O.CAN.KPAH.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-
BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-
LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...
GREENVILLE...ELKTON...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
253 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

$$

INZ087-088-031000-
/O.CAN.KPAH.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140203T0900Z/
WARRICK-SPENCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT
253 AM CST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 AM CST Sun Feb 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

Radar mosaic shows rain across the lower Ohio river valley and
moving across the southeast half of the FA early this morning. The
surface plot reveals the 32F line has wedged its way into/across
our northwest tier counties. However radar shows the pcpn gets
very spot along and north/west of that line, and the modeling
confirms and continues that trend thru the am hours. Given the
very warm day yesterday and still warm night that the 32F line
invades upon, any very light pcpn falling behind the main band
into the 32F air is probably not freezing on the ground or at
least doesnt appear to be by reports. Obs show the pcpn is
changing from rain to sleet/snow mix anyway, before ending.
Therefore we will not have any headline out this early morning,
although we will maintain a close monitor of these northwest
counties in particular, and issue an SPS if indeed some slick
patches develop where temps are 32F or below. This could develop
even outside of pcpn areas, where water may be ponding or moisture
on the ground may be eventually freezing before it dries.

The models return waa upglide overtop invading cold air this
afternoon thru tonight. Models/soundings show depth of cold air
to be 4-6K feet, with good crstal growth dropping from -10 to -20c
zone, and thus we think we will see a marked rain change to
snow/sleet line, with little/no fzra impact. Did include some hint
of it in the south/east though, where it will rain longer, and
take longer, for the 32F line to get into the pcpn body. But the
primary effect from this pm thru tonight will be snow/heavy snow
potential. Thus have coordinated/collaborated and aligned with
neighbors and hpc, and headlined advisory for entire fa, with a
tier of counties along/just south of the Ohio river where we have
a warning. Amounts should be generally 2-3" but some banding in
this zone could produce the requisite 4" or more amounts visa vi
hpc day1.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

The main challenge for this forecast period will be the wintry event
on Tuesday. Surprisingly, the GFS/GFS Ensemble did a rather decent
job of initializing surface pressure fields and upper level
temperature fields through the critical dendritic zone. That is one
of the reasons why a bias toward this model was used for the
extended forecast period. All of the other guidance, with the
possible exception of the NAM-WRF/SREF numerical model guidance, was
too far south with the low level cold air intrusion.

The precipitation event may move into parts of Southeast Missouri as
early as 3 am CST Tuesday morning, but the significant lift and
forcing through the dendritic layer does not commence until sometime
after 14z-16z (8-10 am CST) Tuesday morning. Little significant
contribution to precipitation accumulation is expected during this
time period as the low level layer becomes saturated from aloft.

The best forcing aloft in the dendritic zone appears to occur in the
15z-23z (9am-5pm) time frame on Tuesday...sharping dropping off as
the surface low rapidly ejects into eastern KY and the upper low
begins to phase into a low amplitude shortwave trough over the WFO
PAH forecast area. It is during this time, that there will be a
sharp gradient of snow cover associated with deformation zone
lift/forcing across the northwest part of the WFO PAH CWA. At this
time, expect higher snow amounts along and north of a line from Van
Buren and Perryville MO to Mount Vernon IL, with much lesser amounts
less than an inch over the remainder of Southern IL, Southwest
Indiana, Southeast Missouri, and Northwest Kentucky. Should
mesoscale forcing occur along and north of the Van Buren to Mount
Vernon line, snowfall amounts could double beyond current forecast
values with this package. Placed a greater emphasis on sleet (which
contributes to snowfall amounts) versus freezing rain, given the
bias of the GFS toward freezing rain solutions.  Kept any ice
accumulations in a very narrow band along and south of the
accumulating snows. Given the rise in temperatures through the day
on Tuesday, tried to provide a realistic snow amount versus
idealized snowfall total.

Another snow event is suggested through guidance late Friday into
Saturday, but given the uncertainty with the PoPs with this system
do not plan to put any significant emphasis toward this weather
event at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SUN FEB 2 2014

IFR to LIFR cigs likely to linger across the PAH forecast area
through at least 00Z. With falling temps behind a departing cold
front, expect rain to eventually change over to sleet, then snow.
IFR vsbys are more likely with snowfall, primarily afternoon and
into the evening. Nrly winds will remain quite robust, especially
west of the MS River.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>089-092.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     KYZ001-002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022.

     WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to 3 AM CST Monday FOR
     KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018>020.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1000 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-030400-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1000 PM CST SAT FEB 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LAYER OF ICE COULD BE PUT
DOWN BEFORE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA.

PLEASE REFER TO OUR WINTER STORM WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST WITH THE WEATHER
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
NOTABLE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM VAN BUREN AND CARBONDALE ILLINOIS ONWARD TO NEAR
CARMI ILLINOIS AND PETERSBURG INDIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...SNOW AND ICE
REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED.