Tornado Warning 38, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT Wed May 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

Latest surface analysis shows the surface low over southwest
Tennessee. With the low continuing its north-northeast track,
widespread showers will continue into early this evening, with
any thunderstorm activity remaining focused across our eastern
counties. Isolated thunderstorms around the Nashville area are
moving to the north-northwest toward our southeast counties in the
tornado watch. A line of thunderstorms developing farther west in
Tennessee are moving north-northeast, and these will also give our
southeast quadrant of counties a good chance of some thunderstorms
this afternoon. As the low moves northeast of our region this
evening, LIs quickly go positive, so no thunderstorms are expected
after about 02z, and showers will gradually taper off from
southwest to northeast during the evening and overnight hours.

An upper level low over central Canada will slide southeast into
the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. This will keep the
upper level trof over our area Thursday into Friday. Models
generate some light QPF over our region through this time period.
Continued with slight chance to chance pops across the entire PAH
forecast area Thursday and Thursday night. On Friday, GFS and NAM
keep any lingering showers focused across our northern and eastern
counties, while ECMWF extends QPF farther west. Kept some slight
to low chance pops focused more where GFS and NAM show QPF. By
Friday night, GFS and ECMWF both show a weak disturbance
generating some precipitation that just skirts our southern
counties. ECMWF initially kept this precip south of our area, but
the latest run has come more in line with GFS. Continued with some
low pops for showers in southern portions of southeast Missouri
and far west Kentucky.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the near term
forecast. Overnight lows tonight through Friday night will be 10
to 15 degrees below normal in the 40s, and highs will generally be
10 to 15 degrees below normal in the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

The 12Z models seem to be in decent agreement in the synoptic trends
through the period, although the details will need to be hashed out.

The highly amplified trough that will bring cool weather to the
region in the near term, will gradually relax. Disturbances in the
weakening cyclonic flow may result in some showers along the
southern periphery of the region Saturday and Saturday night, but
otherwise the weekend looks dry.

By midday Monday, both the GFS and ECMWF develop upper troughs over
the Mid-Atlantic coast and the Pacific Northwest. That results in a
ridge building north and northeast out of Texas. The models vary in
the degree of 500mb height rises over our region, with the GFS being
stronger than the ECMWF. The GFS would result in a dry forecast for
the first half of the week, and a very nice warming trend, back well
into the 80s for highs. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps us more in a
northwest flow aloft and keeps a warm front over the area, which
would result in some chance of thunderstorms over at least the
northeast half of the region, and somewhat cooler temperatures.

Decided to play the middle ground for now. Will have slight chances
of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Evansville Tri State
Monday night through Wednesday. Temperatures will be gradually
warming through the period. Highs should climb to near normal by
Monday and then into the lower 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

IFR ceilings will be the rule through the afternoon and much of
tonight. A period of LIFR conditions is possible throughout the
area. Although the rain has diminished over much of the area at
midday, it will ramp up again this afternoon as a surface low
moves through west Kentucky and possibly southwest Indiana late.
TS was included in a TEMPO group at KEVV and KOWB, and a rumble of
thunder cannot be ruled out at KPAH. The IFR ceilings may persist
through the night at KEVV and KOWB, but a general improving trend
in ceilings is expected farther west toward sunrise. Wind
direction will be difficult to call at KOWB this afternoon and
evening as it will be close to the path of the surface low. As
the low passes through the area, winds elsewhere should increase
and become gusty from the northwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-152030-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
323 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR CHRISTIAN...MUHLENBERG
AND TODD COUNTIES IN WEST KENTUCKY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
ESCORT A SURFACE LOW THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DAMAGING
WIND AND BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE SEVERE THREAT AREA TO
EXPAND TO THE WEST POTENTIALLY INCLUDING AREAS FROM MURRAY TO
HENDERSON KENTUCKY...AND THE BOONVILLE AND SANTA CLAUS AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE
AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF
WEST KENTUCKY...AND POTENTIALLY THE LAKES REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.