Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
304 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

In lieu of ongoing convection and operations, will limit
discussion to a minimum at this time.

Stronger storms appear to be enhanced along the eastern edge of
sharp theta-e gradient/dynamic thermal zone of sharper lapse rates
as suggested by the GOES Sounder Water Vapor imagery at 7.0/7.4
micron channels now pushing through Southeast Missouri. Could see
some lessening near the confluence of the Ohio/Mississippi Rivers
as drier air outpaces instability, but the activity over Southern
IL may still have time to be enhanced this afternoon.

The greatest uncertainty in forecast will be late tonight (after
06z Saturday through at least 15z Saturday) where numerical models
differ on the degree of forcing needed to maintain a persistent
train of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of the
Ohio River. Took a slightly slower approach in lowering PoPs and
weather in this area. May be a concern for locally heavy rain overnight.

The 09z Friday SREF seemed to have the best overall handle on the
transitional nature of the cold front and upper level jet features
impinging on the stalling boundary through the weekend. The least
amount of forcing/ridging aloft takes place during the late
morning and into the early evening on Saturday.

Beyond Saturday evening, a broad trough develops in the
intermountain region of the U.S., shifting a warm cap aloft back
to the north and focusing a warm advection zone (developing warm
front from the stalled out front) Saturday Night into Sunday. This
will provide a period in which a warm advection showers and
thunderstorm will increase late Saturday night, eventually working
slowly northward Sunday night. This is a little different that
previous forecasts for Sunday, but is suggestive of a slightly
higher PoPs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

A rather strong spring storm system continues to be the primary
concern in the long term. The models agree that a sharp high
amplitude shortwave trough will impinge on our region early next
week. The associated strong cold front will cross our region on
Tuesday. This front will be followed by unseasonably cool air as a
deep cyclonic vortex stalls over the Great Lakes region mid to
late week.

As far as the daily details...
Monday will be the warmest and driest day of the long term as the
Plains system slowly works its way east. Some showers and storms
could develop in the moist and unstable southwest flow...but the
majority of the activity will remain closer to the frontal boundary.

The models are in much better agreement on the timing of the frontal
boundary. The surface front will move slowly east across our region
on Tuesday. It appears the front will become very steeply
sloped...with the 850 mb front lagging well behind. The 12z ecmwf
delays the 850 mb frontal passage until Wednesday night. The steeply
sloped boundary and meridional flow along the boundary both suggest
heavy rain would be more of a concern than severe weather. Both
hazards will continue to be addressed in the hwo. The slower
movement of the upper level system warrants chance pops through the
day Wednesday for the entire region. Will hold off on introducing
chance pops for Wednesday night...since the 12z ecmwf is an outlier.

Thursday into Friday...a deep cyclonic vortex will likely be
spinning across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. Impulses
rotating around this system will bring periods of cloudiness and
possibly a few showers. The timing of these impulses and associated
moisture will affect temps...but it will be unseasonably cool no
matter what. Even with full sunshine...highs would not reach 70
based on 850 mb temps from zero to plus 4.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

Rather convoluted set of TAF's for the WFO PAH forecast area
trying to encompass the departing MVFR ceilings and the
approaching MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities with the new
shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and this
evening. An even longer duration of MVFR ceilings and visibilities
are expected in the vicinity of the stalling cold front,
especially from KPAH and KEVV eastward.

Not particularly fond of using more TEMPO groups, but do not wish
to keep longer periods in place of lower ceilings and visibilities
as a prevailing group when possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101415-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH THROUGH 8 PM CDT. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
LARGE HAIL ARE TH PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A SMALL FOCUSED AREA
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE
PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY SEE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A GREATER
CONCERN LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF A LULL ON SATURDAY...OR LIMITED COVERAGE. A FEW STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
IS APPRECIATED.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     HAIL             DE SOTO                 37.82N 89.23W
05/09/2014  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREWER                  37.78N 89.93W
05/09/2014                   PERRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF OFF AT LEAST ONE HOUSE

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             1 S ZALMA               37.13N 90.08W
05/09/2014  E1.00 INCH       BOLLINGER          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL 1 MI S OF ZALMA.

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     CHAFFEE                 37.18N 89.66W
05/09/2014                   SCOTT              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ALONG SCOTT/CAPE GIRARDEAU COUNTY LINE

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
347 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 N CHAFFEE             37.21N 89.66W
05/09/2014  E0.50 INCH       CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 MI N OF CHAFFEE

&&

DP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
404 PM CDT FRI MAY 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N BELL CITY           36.57N 88.50W
05/09/2014                   GRAVES             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN ROOF BLOWN OFF AG BUILDING NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY P AND HIGHWAY 91. LARGE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 25
            NEAR ADVANCE.

&&

MY