Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
151 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Near term environment remains favorable for elevated storms on
boundary of warm sector and should continue with slgt risk of
hail/wind threat along with heavy rain potential. Best heavy rain
potential setup is later tonight, as next round moves in. High
pw's here/upstream approach 99th percentile. Two SPENES updates
mentioned the locally higher threat of 4-6" if MCS can get going
and LLJ feeds itself. FFG is not too bad at generally 2-3"
overnight but higher than 3" totals could cause flooding issues,
so will go ahead and "Watch" area per collab.

All mdt risks downgraded to slgt risk due mainly to further
southward/westward shift of max instability zones. Still slgt risk
offers ample opportunity for svr threat, including surface based
activity from later this evening through Monday. Will massage HWO
wording to reflect this ongoing hazard potential. Will also need
to be looking at areas of heaviest rainfall, and considering
future need for FFA after tonight's rain has come to completion.
There should be a pause before a re-amp tmrw pm/evening, with the
axis likely shifting further to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

The system's surface features have made passage by Wednesday but
we'll remain under the pesky influence of the upper trof right on
thru the end of the week and possibly into the early weekend. This
means a continued cool/showery forecast or at least chance
thereof, anticipate little more than minor massaging of current
forecast to reflect newest data input. Another piece of energy in
the blocky flow may support a renewed/higher pop by weekend's end,
but will monitor in coming days to see if models bring it to
frution.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Lowering VFR cigs will go potentially to MVFR in convection, with
IFR vsbys possible in heavier showers/storms. Gusty gradient winds
may contain a higher convective gust as well. Generally a stormy
period early-into the overnight hours, with a late night-early
tmrw lull accompanied by a brief period of MVFR cigs. Early
daylight hours should lift cloud bases and disperse overnight
activity, before renewed development potentially gets going during
heating hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-
     085-088-089-092>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KYZ001>006-008-009.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
140 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST OVERNIGHT
INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK OF BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN EXPECTATION
FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOOD ISSUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY..AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
TONIGHT. REFER TO THE WATCH AND ANY ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS OR
STATEMENTS IN EFFECT FOR DETAILS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE
SLIGHT AND INCLUDE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES A
POSSIBILITY THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE HAZARDS. IF ACCUMULATED HEAVY RAINS OCCUR WITH ENOUGH
REPEAT HEAVY RAIN...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME AN
ELEVATED HAZARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEATHER WATCH IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION
IS REQUESTED SOMETIME FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MOUNT VERNON       38.29N 88.95W
04/27/2014                   JEFFERSON          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES AND TWO OUTBUILDINGS WERE BLOWN DOWN
            NEAR ROUTE 148. LATE REPORT.

&&

MY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-272300-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
323 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...

WITH MUCH OF OUR AREA NOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN STORMS TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST...AND STORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN SOME STRONG AFTERNOON WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE MEASURED SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH. A
GUST TO 40 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GUSTS TO THESE SPEEDS
WILL BE MAINLY AN IMPEDIMENT TO VEHICULAR TRAFFIC...ESPECIALLY
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS AS WELL. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SMALLER EARLY SPRING TREES COULD BE SNAPPED OR SMALL
LIMBS DOWNED TOO.

THESE NON THUNDERSTORM GUSTS SHOULD SOMEWHAT SUBSIDE WITH THE
SETTING SUN AND AS ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

INZ087-088-KYZ019-272115-
DAVIESS KY-SPENCER IN-WARRICK IN-
333 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WARRICK AND SPENCER
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
FOLSOMVILLE TO KNOTTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRANDVIEW...FOLSOMVILLE...DALE...SANTA CLAUS...TENNYSON...CHRISNEY
  AND GENTRYVILLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
441 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

ILZ076-272200-
WAYNE IL-
441 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 438 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CISNE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF FLORA...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY BETWEEN CISNE AND FLORA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.