Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Paducah, KY

639 
WGUS73 KPAH 302108
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

KYC033-047-107-143-302200-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-140830T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON KY-CALDWELL KY-CHRISTIAN KY-HOPKINS KY-
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR 
CALDWELL...EASTERN LYON...HOPKINS...AND NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN 
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ACROSS THE WARNING 
AREA. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES...THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED 
AND RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE 
TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH 500 PM.

DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS A WATER COVERED ROAD. 

LAT...LON 3713 8738 3711 8754 3708 8762 3697 8777
      3695 8785 3696 8789 3691 8799 3688 8813
      3714 8809 3746 8736 3731 8734 3731 8738
      3726 8739 3718 8733

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms persisted across
west KY this afternoon, with scattered development seen from SEMO
into SRN IL in an axis of slightly greater instability. The
general PoP depiction through tonight will be highest across the
SE 1/2, slightly lower NW 1/2. Locally heavy rain will remain a
concern with PW's over 2" across much of the area, coupled with a
persistent low level SW jet and mid level flow unidirectional to
the low trop. Once the final wave moves through Sunday morning and
dampens out, convection over mainly west KY into SW IN should push
on to the east. Will have lowering PoPs through the day and early
evening. Later Sunday night through Labor day looks somewhat
inactive. We lowered PoPs for labor day, and kept just small
chances far north over portions of SRN IL into SW IN. Not
expecting much coverage overall. Chances will ramp up Monday night
when a front moves toward the region and mid level energy moves
across the Midwest toward the Ohio Valley. In terms of temps, used
a blend of existing numbers (persistence) and latest raw model
output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

The long term will start out busy as the mid level flow remains
active. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Tuesday,
along with weakening front at the surface. Models generate healthy
QPF as the front enters the CWA around 12Z Tuesday in parts of
southwest IL and southeast MO. Convergence/lift weakens along the
front as it moves east during the morning and especially during
afternoon. However, it still appears convection will be likely in
the western sections early in the day, possibly lessening in
coverage during the afternoon as things progress eastward. The 00Z/12Z
ECMWF is more robust with QPF especially for the afternoon, as the
GFS really drops off QPF during that time. Will raise POPS though to
just shy of the likely category with the best chances in MO/IL.
Instability parameters are off the charts on the GFS so if we have
enough lift, there may be more convection then the QPF indicates.

The front ends up stalling over the southern sections on Tuesday
night, so will linger POPS with best chances south. The GFS
indicates that the front will start moving northward as a warm front
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. In turn, the GFS indicates
scattered convection during the day and into the night. The flow
aloft remains zonal with the center of the upper high centered over
the deep south. The ECMWF is not as pronounced with showing much of
a retreat back north, and therefore does not show much in the way of
QPF. In fact, it shows the upper ridge building somewhat across our
area, which will tend to keep us dry through Wednesday night. Will
maintain low chance POPS for now until we can get a better handle on
what this front will end up doing.

By Thursday and through the end of the period, it appears as though
upper level ridging will take over which should end any chances for
decent chances for rain, except for isolated afternoon chances.

Highs will be in the upper 80s translating to the lower 90s by the
end of the period. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, it should
continue to feel like summer for a while longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With the upper trof slowly approaching from the west, expect waves
of convection of varying intensity to continue through the forecast
period. Best chances after 00z should be east of a KEVV-KJBR line
across our area, slowly diminishing from the west. With the wind
staying up overnight, was not concerned with fog. VSBY restrictions
should be mainly with precipitation. We are forecasting cigs down
into the MVFR category, possibly pushing IFR. Winds from the SSW
should average about 5 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-311000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
448 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST COMMON OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI...SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF
KENTUCKY TODAY...THOUGH AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARILY IN THE
PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MAY PICK UP AGAIN FOR LABOR DAY. THIS
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...
DIMINISHING BY THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN OR LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

KYZ005-301830-
MCCRACKEN KY-
1241 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST PADUCAH...OR 6 MILES WEST OF LONE
OAK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST PADUCAH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3717 8882 3706 8857 3699 8866 3695 8881
      3718 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 221DEG 21KT 3708 8875

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST PADUCAH            37.08N 88.74W
08/30/2014  M4.48 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   ASOS

            DAILY RAINFALL UP THROUGH 240 PM.

&&

CTN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

KYZ016-020-021-302100-
HOPKINS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AT 250 PM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD
EARLINGTON...MORTONS GAP AND NORTONVILLE IN HOPKINS COUNTY
KENTUCKY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO MUHLENBERG COUNTY TOWARD
GREENVILLE AS WELL THROUGH 400 PM. THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY
STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF HOPKINS COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.