Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Thunderstorms will continue to organize and move east along a
southward moving cold front this afternoon and early this evening.
Tornado watch will remain in effect for any given area until the
front passes south of the region and takes the threat with it.
Heavy rainfall will also be a concern as PWATS values have pooled
to near 2 inches. The rain/storm chcs will decrease markedly later
tonight as the front continues slowly south into AR/TN.

The main forecast concern for the remainder of the short period
will be with the repeated risk for thunderstorms/heavy
rain...mainly over se MO as the front stalls out over AR/nrn MS.
Several short waves will top the mid level ridge anchored over the
nw Gulf Coast, and may lead to more than one MCS type storm
clusters along and north of the stalled sfc front Thu/Fri.

Temperatures should be noticeably cooler Thu/Fri as we will be on
the cool side of the front. In fact...drier air working into most
areas east of the MS River will make conditions a bit less humid
as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

While the med range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with
the overall flow over the CONUS, individual runs have some
differences in the timing of pcpn-generating impulses. At the start
of the extended period, the PAH forecast area will probably be in
the warm sector of a sfc frontal system induced by a mid level
shrtwv moving ewd through the zonal flow aloft.

The timing of the development and movement of the initial sfc low
differs among med range models, but the best guess is that it should
be moving across central to nrn parts of MO and IL Sat night,
meaning the passage of a cold front sometime on Sun. This boundary
will provide some focus for shower and tstm development later on Sat
and part of Sun, which will allow likely PoPs for parts of our
region especially ahead of it.

The frontal boundary may hang up in or near the srn border of the
PAH forecast area into early next week, and then may be acted on by
several sfc waves. A more substantial mid level shrtwv is shown in
the model data to be in our vicinity from Tue on, gradually moving
ewd by Wed and, as a result, the aforementioned frontal boundary may
move newd as a warm front. Confidence is not very good at this time
as to the timing of all these features. One thing is for sure, Tue
night is currently the only 12 hr time frame with no PoPs mentioned
for most of the region. Severe weather cannot be ruled out in the
extended, namely over the weekend. It will be dependent on how the
convective systems evolve.

While the sun will be seen from time to time, there should be plenty
of clouds around along with the convection. Expect near seasonable
temps during the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Shra/tstms will develop ahead of a cold front, becoming widespread
by from 21z-04z. Included VCTS all sites around 20z, and went with
TEMPO groups between 22z-03z. These times may be extended/adjusted
2 hours either side of that window. Tstms will produce MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions. Away from storms, VFR will prevail, with
occasional MVFR. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 15 kts with some
higher gusts, and even gustier near storms, then shift to the
northwest to north and decrease between 07z-11z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
515 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-050830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
515 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS. HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MEFFERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE ELKTON             36.86N 87.09W
06/04/2014  E70 MPH          TODD               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM WIND GUST ESTIMATED BETWEEN 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1006 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HOPKINSVILLE            36.85N 87.49W
06/04/2014  M0.50 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN 5 MINUTES.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1008 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CALEDONIA               36.82N 87.69W
06/04/2014                   TRIGG              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDE SPREAD POWER OUTAGES.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1010 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             CROFTON                 37.05N 87.48W
06/04/2014  M1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG DAWSON
            SPRINGS ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1016 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
06/04/2014                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL ROADS IN TOWN WITH FLASH FLOODING. WATER OVER
            BUMPER HEIGHT.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             PEMBROKE                36.77N 87.36W
06/04/2014  M0.75 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

SMITTY