Alert archive / Illinois / Flash Flood Warnings in 2014

Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

April 3, 20144 counties in Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Apr 3, 2014, 3:19 PM CDT for 4 counties in Illinois. It was in force for 3 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2014, 3:19 PM CDT (20:19 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2014, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Franklin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Wayne County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 3, 3:50 PM CDT	FLOOD	2 Ne Mount Vernon, IL	2.3 INCHES OF RAIN. A CREEK WAS OVERFLOWING IN HIS BACKYARD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 440 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 259 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 365 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

951 
WGUS53 KPAH 032019
FFWPAH
ILC055-065-081-191-032315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0004.140403T2019Z-140403T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 318 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  FLASH FLOODING FROM REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE...
  MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...WOODLAWN...BLUFORD...WAYNE CITY AND
  CISNE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3860 8814 3831 8814 3826 8817 3825 8837
      3790 8837 3788 8915 3795 8915 3795 8917
      3806 8912 3821 8916 3848 8914 3848 8871
      3861 8869

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 3, 2:52 PM CDT, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 2:52 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday night/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main concern in the short term is severe weather and flooding
potential tonight.

Over the past 24 hours...three convective complexes have affected
parts of the forecast area. These complexes were forecast very
poorly by the models...including the high res mesoscale models.
Based on the poor track record of the models...there is not a high
degree of confidence in the evolution of convection tonight.

Widespread convection earlier today stabilized much of southern
Illinois...southwest Indiana...and northwest Kentucky. To the
south of this activity...SPC objective analysis charts indicate
surface based capes from 1000 to 2000 j/kg as of 19z...but also
some convective inhibition. NAM/RAP model soundings indicate a
warm layer around 750 to 800 mb that may be capping development.
This warm layer will erode this evening...but then lapse rates
below 850 mb become poor.

By 04z widespread convection will develop or move into the
forecast area as a potent 500 mb shortwave over the Plains lifts
northeast...producing strong deep layer forcing in a very moist
environment. RAP forecast soundings indicate the low level jet
will increase to 60 knots as it shifts east to the Mississippi
River around or shortly after 00z. In general...shear profiles and
hodographs will become more favorable for supercells by
00z...especially west of the Kentucky Lake region. The potential
limiting factor will be low to mid level lapse rates...as noted
above.

Wind fields will become more unidirectional late this
evening...as evidenced by curved hodographs becoming more straight
line. This will result in a transition to a linear /qlcs/ storm
mode...with damaging straight line winds the primary threat.
Isolated qlcs tornadoes will be possible.

Convective complexes over the past 24 hours have produced locally
heavy rainfall...leading to some isolated flash flooding. With a
strong low level jet and unseasonably moist air mass in
place...there is a potential for more heavy rain. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued to address this potential. These complexes
have missed most of southeast Missouri...so that area was not
included in the watch.

The cold front will exit the khop/kevv areas by 12z...bringing an
end to all activity. There may be considerable instability
cu/stratocu during the day...per gfs and nam model soundings.
Temps will generally remain steady in the 50s with gusty
northwest winds.

Friday night through Saturday night will be mainly clear and cool
with some potential for frost in the early morning hours. Surface
high pressure will pass over or just north of the forecast area on
Saturday.

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The next weather system takes shape to our south Sunday, and for at
least the second consecutive day, moves in with pcpn Sunday night
and extends that at least through part of early next week.

This happens as a broad long wave trof carves out across the eastern
half of the country, with us in the cool/damp flow underneath. We'll
go ahead and accept the allblended pops for the Sunday night through
Tuesday time period, focusing on the best chance time period Sunday
night as the system lifts out. Elevated instability there continues
to support the isolated mention of thunder we inherited, so we kept
it.

Temps remain in balance with consistently forecast highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. These
represent values some 10 degrees or more below climo norms for this
time of year...though some hint at warming a little toward the end
of the period is noted.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Active convection will take low VFR or MVFR conditions to temporary
IFR conditions. Cold frontal passage tonight will mark most
restrictive flight conditions, with severe weather possible from
late afternoon til system passes. Strong gusty southerlies ahead of
the system will shift to the west late tonight after its passage.
Clouds should disperse tomorrow morning and return to VFR flight
conditions in the wake of the system's departure.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ076-087-111-112.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

&&

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...DH

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 9:14 AM CDT, 6 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
914 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE TIME PERIOD FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT MAKES
ITS APPROACH AND PASSAGE.

IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEANS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR ARE OCCURRING AND REPEATING OVER
THE SAME AREAS IN MANY INSTANCES. WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN ON THE
WAY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE QUAD
STATE...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS ARE ENCOURAGED TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 3, 10:38 AM CDT, 4 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EQUALITY                37.74N 88.34W
04/03/2014                   GALLATIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 142 HAS LOTS OF WATER RUNNING ACROSS IT IN THE
            CITY LIMITS.

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 10:45 AM CDT, 4 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1045 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ZEIGLER                 37.90N 89.05W
04/03/2014  E2.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.24 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 10:47 AM CDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARMI                   38.09N 88.17W
04/03/2014                   WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE RUNNING WATER MOVING ACROSS THEM.
            THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF THE COUNTY.

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 11:50 AM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ELDORADO                37.81N 88.44W
04/03/2014                   SALINE             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER SEVERAL ROADS IN THE CITY LIMITS

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 1:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SORGHO                  37.75N 87.25W
04/03/2014                   DAVIESS            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS UNDERWATER THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY

&&

DLL

Local storm report, Apr 3, 1:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEWBURGH                37.95N 87.40W
04/03/2014  E1.50 INCH       WARRICK            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DLL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 2, 8:13 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	PAH	Wayne, White	4 days
Apr 3, 8:44 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Franklin	3 hr
Apr 3, 9:17 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	PAH	Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more	22 hr
Apr 3, 9:33 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Hamilton, Saline, White, Williamson	3 hr
Apr 3, 10:40 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Hardin, Johnson, Pope, Pulaski	3 hr
Apr 3, 1:43 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Edwards, Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson, Perry, Wabash and 2 more	3 hr
Apr 3, 2:47 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Wayne, White	17 days
Apr 3, 3:34 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, White	3 hr
Apr 3, 4:34 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Gallatin, Saline	116 min
Apr 3, 5:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Saline	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2014 Every flash flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.