Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
848 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.UPDATE...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING... UPDATED POPS/WX/TEMPS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUICK EVENING UPDATE... STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE DRYLINE HAS
STARTED TO RETREAT... WITH 01Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACING IT SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE OK/TX PH BORDER. DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED NICELY...
WITH BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUING TO SHOW A DECENT ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N TX... 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 45KTS... AND
1000 TO 1700 J/KG SBCAPE. AS STORM MOVE EAST... THEY WILL START TO
MOVE INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SFC BASED
STORMS... AS 08/00Z OPERATIONAL SOUNDING FROM KOUN STILL SHOWS A
SIZABLE EML BETWEEN 850-800MB. HOWEVER... SFC BASED MOISTURE IS
GOOD... WITH A GOOD ISENTROPIC RESPONSE IN THE BL. BUFR SOUNDINGS
FROM OKC SHOWS THE EML WEAKENING... AND COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASED LLJ OVERNIGHT AS THE H500 TROUGH DIGS FURTHER E/SE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES... EXPECT A ROUND TWO OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION TO PICK UP NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT A LINEAR/COMPLEX TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE EARLYTHURSDAY
MORNING HOURS CONSIDERING DECENT 1500 TO 1800 SFC-500 MUCAPE AND
0-3KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH NUDGING
EASTWARD. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT... BUT IF
CLUSTERS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ANY SIZABLE COLD POOLS... THERE COULD
BE A WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  82  59  80 /  40  60  20  10
HOBART OK         64  89  54  83 /  40  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  87  60  87 /  50  50  10  10
GAGE OK           60  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  82  58  78 /  40  50  50  10
DURANT OK         69  79  67  85 /  30  80  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
459 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
459 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO
MADILL...INCLUDING THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY...WICHITA FALLS...
LAWTON...PONCA CITY...ENID...CLINTON...ALTUS...AND STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE PEAK HOURS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
INTENSITY WILL BE LESS.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...

DISCUSSION...
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE ACROSS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRST
REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...DUE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. STORMS LATE TONIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE COMPARED TO THE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAY BECOME ELEVATED. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS A SQUALL LINE LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/CMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
821 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             2 E VINSON              34.90N 99.82W
05/07/2014  E1.00 INCH       HARMON             OK   PUBLIC

&&

DW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
823 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKZ027-039-040-080145-
GRADY OK-GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-
823 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRADY...WESTERN
GARVIN AND NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 820 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARLOW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN...MARLOW...BRAY...CENTRAL HIGH AND COX CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3447 9794 3460 9810 3490 9784 3472 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 222DEG 35KT 3460 9796

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKZ006-007-080145-
GRANT OK-ALFALFA OK-
827 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN GRANT AND EAST CENTRAL
ALFALFA COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 824 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NASH...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3672 9765 3659 9805 3659 9810 3657 9811
      3656 9812 3676 9825 3696 9778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 240DEG 49KT 3669 9810

WR

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