Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND WIND AS THE
MAIN THREATS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WITHOUT THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING... OVERNIGHT
STORMS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THOSE THIS EVENING... HOWEVER...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO CONTINUE A
SEVERE THREAT. MOST HI RES MODELS SHOW THESE STORMS FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING EASTWARD.

GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMALLY IMPACTED.

WESTERN COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ON THURSDAY
AS MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE TEENS. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW 20 MPH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALSO SEE LOW MINIMUM RH
VALUES...HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER.

14

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST... AFTER THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CURRENT H500 TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH FRI... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM
COAST TO COAST WILL SET UP THROUGH SATURDAY. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY... BUT CURRENT MID-RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE VARIED
LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT... SO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PRECIP/WX GRIDS INHERITED FROM SPEG ON THE NIGHT SHIFT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN AS AN H500
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE
TROUGH... A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DIVE S/SE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WITH SOME
VARIABILITY BETWEEN LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS... SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE SAVED FOR ANOTHER
DAY... UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY EXISTS. BEHIND THE FRONT... TEMPS
WILL DIP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY... WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE SFC HIGHS SHIFTS TO THE E/SE.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  82  59  80 /  40  60  20  10
HOBART OK         64  89  54  83 /  40  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  87  60  87 /  50  50  10  10
GAGE OK           60  85  48  80 /  20  10  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     70  82  58  78 /  40  50  50  10
DURANT OK         69  79  67  85 /  30  80  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004>007-009>011-
     014>016-021.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1159 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE TO
MADILL...INCLUDING THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY...WICHITA FALLS...
LAWTON...PONCA CITY...ENID...CLINTON...ALTUS...AND STILLWATER.

TIMING...
THE PEAK HOURS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT OVERALL
INTENSITY WILL BE LESS.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...

DISCUSSION...
AROUND 4 PM...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE...SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM SEYMOUR TEXAS
TO WATONGA OKLAHOMA TO ENID OKLAHOMA...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST.
STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
SPARSE...DUE TO SOME CAPPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SUPERCELL WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

LATER TONIGHT...THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS. FIRST
REDEVELOPMENT MAY BE AROUND MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN OR
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...DUE TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. STORMS LATE TONIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS SEVERE COMPARED TO THE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MAY BECOME ELEVATED. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS A SQUALL LINE LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS AFTER 4 PM.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT...DRY...AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER WILL PERSIST IN KEEPING
THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL VERY HIGH TO EXTREME THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM IN THESE AREAS.

.STRONG WINDS...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

TXZ085-072030-
WILBARGER TX-
304 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 302 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAYBACK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAUNION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 9910 3402 9922 3420 9922 3417 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 203DEG 23KT 3405 9916

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

OKZ037-TXZ085-072030-
TILLMAN OK-WILBARGER TX-
315 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND EAST
CENTRAL WILBARGER COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 313 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OKLAUNION...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAVIDSON AND OKLAUNION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 9906 3409 9917 3436 9911 3434 9894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 201DEG 34KT 3414 9910

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