Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
648 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBO WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY E THIS MORNING. AT
1145Z...IT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KAVK TO KLTS. AT 18Z...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR KPNC TO KADH TO E/KADM.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
STRONG W TO SW WINDS AND AREAS OF BLDU WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. BLDU
WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN IN W OK AND KSPS THAN AREAS FARTHER E.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND BLDU WILL END.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE WILDFIRE DANGER/WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND DRYLINE. WE ADDED A FEW COUNTIES OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO THE
WIND ADVISORY...WHERE WINDIEST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OUR WEST BUT
IMPACTING FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PARTS OF CWA...AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST THAT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES WILL BE ADDED TO
FORECAST. CENTRAL PARTS OF OKLAHOMA COULD STILL SEE SOME BLOWING
DUST...WITH A HAZY/COLORFUL SUNSET LIKELY.

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...THE OVERALL IDEA OF FINE-SCALE MODELS IS
TO HAVE ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF
DRYLINE THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS POINT TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF INTERSTATE-35.
TIMING IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AMONG MODELS...BUT GENERALLY THE
DRYLINE AND RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EAST OF OKC METRO
AND INTERSTATE-35 AFTER 10 AM. AS FAR AS SEVERE STORMS...THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AND THOSE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. GREATER RISK FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE WELL EAST OF INTERSTATE-35 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

COOLER TODAY AND MUCH COOLER BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODIC ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH WE MAINTAIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARD END OF WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  81  50  75  48 /  40   0  20  10
HOBART OK         81  48  77  46 /  10   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  51  81  49 /  20   0   0  10
GAGE OK           77  46  71  42 /  10  10  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     83  49  74  42 /  40   0  20  10
DURANT OK         85  55  79  51 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR OKZ004>024-033>038-044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR OKZ004>030-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/11/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
655 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ALONG
AND EAST OF A COMBINED DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST TODAY...FROM THE I-35 AREA AT ABOUT 8 AM...TO
ATOKA AND DURANT AROUND 1 PM. EXPECT HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND STRONG WINDS TO 65 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGER HAIL
AND STRONGER WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK OF STORMS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ENTER WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID-
MORNING...AND SPREAD EAST WITH THE DRYLINE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID EVENING.

.WINDS...
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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