Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH SEVERE STORMS LIKELY
TODAY/TONIGHT...SATURDAY...AND PERHAPS SUNDAY.

DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF AMARILLO SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
BIG SPRING TX. CU FIELD BECOMING MORE ENHANCED NEAR SNYDER TX
NOW...AND EXPECT INITIAL DEEP CONVECTION THERE WHERE CURRENT
MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND LOWEST CIN ALONG
THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL CU CAN BE SEEN JUST EAST AND NE OF AMA AS
WELL. WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION SHORT SINCE AT LEAST A SEVERE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED VERY SOON FOR WESTERN OK/N TX. MAIN
THREAT (LARGE HAIL NEAR TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70
MPH) WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN PERHAPS
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OK DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
(SMALLER HAIL BUT STILL A DAMAGING WIND THREAT). POPS SHOULD
QUICKLY DECREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS (25 TO 35 MPH)
BEHIND THE FRONT SO AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

NOT MUCH GOING ON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AS WINDS BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH ONSET OF SFC HIGH. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ANOTHER LEE
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR SE CO AND MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SSE FLOW. DIFFUSE DRYLINE MAY SETUP ALONG
TX PANHANDLE/OK BORDER...BUT WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT
FOR NOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW POPS MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED NEAR SW OK/W N TX WHERE CAP MAY ERODE AND ENOUGH
SFC CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE LIFT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP. BY SATURDAY MORNING A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOCAL REGION...AND THEN TO NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE 4 CORNERS
BY 00Z SUN. EXPECT SFC DEWPOINTS TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE LATE SAT AFTERNOON. RAPID HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WX THREAT ALONG AND WEST OF I35. THE THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE CLOSED LOW WITH
MOST OF THE COVERAGE JUST EAST OF OUR FA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHC
POPS IN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AS THE ECMWF AND GEMNH
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  78  52  84 /  60  10   0   0
HOBART OK         59  80  50  86 /  60   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  64  82  54  86 /  50  10   0   0
GAGE OK           55  76  49  86 /  40   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     62  78  50  85 /  60  20   0   0
DURANT OK         65  80  54  83 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
653 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-250000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
653 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS WEST OF A LINE
FROM SHAWNEE AND SULPHUR... TO MARIETTA OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EVOLVE
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IN RESPONSE... A DRYLINE HAS SURGED... BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE
BORDER THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MERGE
FORMING INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND EVENTUALLY INTO A LINE
SEGMENT AS THEY APPROACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM
CDT. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT
THIS EVENING... WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WITH THE
DISCRETE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60
MPH. LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT... AS STORMS MERGE INTO A LINE...
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS TO 65 MPH... AND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

OVERALL... THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT... PRIMARILY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH 1 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WHEN A LARGE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THOSE WHO
ARE PLANNING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE WEEKEND
NEED TO PAY PARTICULARLY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WEATHER FORECASTS.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

KURTZ

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