Severe Thunderstorm Warning 308, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
647 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SOUTH OF I-40.

LATEST RADARS INDICATED ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS...GENERALLY
NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS NEAR A SAN ANGELO TO
DECATUR TEXAS TO HUGO OKLAHOMA LINE. AN INCREASING 850 MB JET MAY
BE ALLOWING FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF DEVELOPING STORMS IN FAR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OVER THE PAST HOUR...WHICH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AS THE
MAIN HAZARD AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY LINGERS ABOVE THE SURFACE
FRONT WITH MID LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM IN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

MOST RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH SOME AREAS OF
DRIZZLE LINGERING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

17/06

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.

GENERALLY THINK MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED SOUTH OF ALL
TAF SITES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS...IFR TO MVFR TO VFR...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA NORTH TO SOUTH...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

ISO-NUM SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE MAINLY BEFORE 06Z SOUTH OF KCSM-
KSWO. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN. KSPS HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z. AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY
OCCUR AS WELL EVEN NORTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL EXIT
THE AREA THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS UPPER TROF MOVING
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS TONIGHT INCREASING
LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
TOMORROW AS UPPER WAVE MOVES BY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN
STORMS BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FORECAST LOOKS DRY AFTER THIS
TROF MOVES BY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  60  47  76 /  70  20   0  20
HOBART OK         48  62  48  79 /  50  10   0  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  52  65  50  81 /  70  20   0  20
GAGE OK           42  62  44  78 /  20   0   0  30
PONCA CITY OK     47  60  46  73 /  70  20   0  20
DURANT OK         56  65  51  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

06/17/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
635 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
635 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-40.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL NEAR THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR REPLACING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL END BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. DESPITE RATHER POOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER STORM WILL FAVOR AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER
STORMS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL ENSUE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

AUSTIN/30/BT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

TXZ087-110000-
KNOX TX-
632 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KNOX CITY...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GILLILAND.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 9992 3383 9968 3381 9966 3342 9948
      3340 9972 3340 9990
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 250DEG 26KT 3341 9981