Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CANCELLED PARTS OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY DOWNWARD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT
AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH.

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BASICALLY
NORTHWEST OF A EL RENO TO STILLWATER LINE WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS
ENDED. PLAN TO CANCEL THE WATCH FOR OKLAHOMA CITY AS WELL WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR ONCE ONGOING RAIN ENDS AS REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SEEMS
TO BE SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER
EAST OF WICHITA FALLS. DID NOT INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES TO THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW THINKING ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL MONITOR.

CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GROW IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA JUST SOUTH
OF DUNCAN AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS CLUSTER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS TO WICHITA FALLS TO
OKLAHOMA CITY TO PONCA CITY LINE WHERE MOST RAIN HAS ENDED AND
REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WIDESPREAD
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS. EXPECT A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY
05Z. LARGE AREA OF SHRA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
AT LEAST ONE COMPLEX OF TSRA FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 00Z THROUGH AROUND 08Z THURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN VSBYS REDUCED TO A MILE OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY FROM KOKC/KOUN SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 06Z...INTERMITTENT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN FORECAST BY 18Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.

APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.

MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  78  64  84 /  70  30   0   0
HOBART OK         64  79  63  85 /  20  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  79  66  86 /  40  20  10   0
GAGE OK           60  79  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  80  61  84 /  30  20   0   0
DURANT OK         68  76  63  82 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ025>032-040>043-
     047-048.

TX...NONE.
&&

17/84

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
753 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

OKZ027-028-039-040-310130-
MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-GARVIN OK-STEPHENS OK-
753 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCCLAIN...SOUTHERN
GRADY...WESTERN GARVIN AND NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINDSAY TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRAY TO 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MARLOW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZED HAIL...
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN...MARLOW...LINDSAY...BRAY...ELMORE CITY...BRADLEY...FOSTER...
ANTIOCH...ERIN SPRINGS...COX CITY AND PERNELL.

LAT...LON 3474 9809 3481 9783 3496 9766 3467 9717
      3451 9745 3448 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 310DEG 21KT 3479 9758 3472 9774 3469 9804

AUSTIN

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