Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT KPNC AND/OR KSPS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG VARIABLE WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FOG AND TO BACK OFF A BIT ON PRECIP
CHANCES THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MODELS CONT TO
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF STORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MAKE
A RUN AT FAR SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTN. STILL
APPEARS THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH NONE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES... THERE ARE
SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A
COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR PRIMARILY NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS BEFORE UPPER RIDGE IS
ADVERTISED TO BUILD A LITTLE MORE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK.
IN THE SHORT TERM... EXPECTED SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ARDMORE... CHICKASHA AND VERNON HAVE ALREADY REPORTED VSBYS NEAR
OR BELOW 1 MILE. THIS FOG LOOKS TO BE PRETTY PATCHY AND VARIABLE
SO FAR /CHK IS ALREADY BACK UP TO 10SM/ SO WILL MENTION IN THE
FORECAST BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY UNLESS THE FOG BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE HOLDING OFF WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... SO WILL KEEP ONLY LOW POPS. STORMS
LOOK TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COMPLEX ADVERTISED BY MANY MODELS
TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX IS
ADVERTISED FOR TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THIS AS IT
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE FIRST COMPLEX AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AFTER THIS... RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  69  84  70 /  10  30  40  30
HOBART OK         89  68  87  70 /  30  40  50  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  71  89  72 /  40  30  40  20
GAGE OK           86  66  85  67 /  30  60  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     88  69  84  70 /  20  30  40  40
DURANT OK         91  71  90  72 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30/25/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE... PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
DECREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ083-084-087-241815-
HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN...FOARD AND
KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1227 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF GUTHRIE...MOVING
EAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF HARDEMAN... FOARD AND KNOX COUNTIES BY 1 PM.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

LAT...LON 3423 10005 3424 10001 3423 10000 3430 10000
      3422 9966 3340 9967 3340 9999 3383 10000
      3384 10005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 289DEG 25KT 3431 10026 3357 10033

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

TXZ083>085-087-088-241945-
BAYLOR TX-WILBARGER TX-HARDEMAN TX-FOARD TX-KNOX TX-
155 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAYLOR...WILBARGER...SOUTHERN
HARDEMAN...FOARD AND KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 152 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES WEST OF MEDICINE MOUND TO NEAR CROWELL TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF VERA TO 6 MILES EAST OF BOMARTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH DIAMETER...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...
MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE ALERT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 9903 3341 9899 3340 9995 3430 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 265DEG 24KT 3417 9972 3395 9972 3367 9960 3349
9931