Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS... ADJUSTED TEMPS/SKY...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE...JUST MADE SOME QUICK
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETTING
READY TO MOVE INTO FAR NWRN OK. AT THE MOMENT... THERE ARE TWO
DISTINCT REGIONS OF CONVECTION... THE LARGEST IS OVER WRN/CENTRAL
KS ALONG A BOUNDARY FLANKED BY A SFC HIGH TO THE N/NW AND THE SFC
LOW OVER THE TXPH. THE SECOND IS A SMALL REGION OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS SLOWLY MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN TXPH AND THE OKPH. WIND
IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AT THE MOMENT... CONVECTION IS ELEVATED...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS ACROSS KANSAS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHIFT E/SE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NRN OK
THROUGH 1 AM... WINDS HAVE BEEN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS AS WELL... HOWEVER... PROFILES SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT...
WITH UP TO GOLF BALLS POSSIBLE.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUSPECT DEW POINT AT KHRX IN THE TXPH EARLIER
THIS AFTN SEEMS TO HAVE WORKED OUT OF THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP
AND HRRR... WHICH HAS THE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION MERGING AND
MOVING E/SE ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. CANNOT
ARGUE WITH THE GENERAL SOLUTION OF THE 00Z HRRR... THE NRN
CONVECTION HAS LAID DOWN A DECENT COLD POOL... WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING... MAINTAINING THE CONVECTION IN A
E/SOUTHEASTERLY PATH. CARVED VECTORS AND O-3KM SHEAR SUPPORT THIS
ALONG WITH GOOD 0-1KM COMPUTED MUCAPE.

STORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE METRO SOMETIME BETWEEN 3-5AM... WITH
WIND REMAINING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STAY WEATHER AWARE
OVERNIGHT.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MODEST SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. THEREAFTER...A COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW
ORGANIZING OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...IMPACTING TERMINALS FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KOKC/KOUN AND
KPNC FROM 03Z THROUGH 12Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO
BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS. BEHIND THE STORM COMPLEX...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z. THEREAFTER...VSBYS/CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS SFC HEATING ENSUES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA TONIGHT/THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE FA. HOWEVER...
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH A COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPS FROM STORMS IN THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND KS AND MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

A FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SE PARTS OF THE FA
THU AFTN/EVENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REDUCING THE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW DAYS. OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  67  82  60 /   0  50  50  10
HOBART OK         93  68  85  58 /   0  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  71  89  63 /   0  30  30  10
GAGE OK           93  63  80  55 /   0  80  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     87  65  78  59 /   0  90  70  10
DURANT OK         91  68  84  65 /   0  40  70  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121730-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1224 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EXTENDS NORTH OF A LINE FROM TISHOMINGO TO
FREDERICK...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FREDERICK TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AFTER 10 PM
TONIGHT AND BEFORE 8 AM TOMORROW.

IMPACTS...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 TO 70 MPH...
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...

DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
TEXAS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE. AS THESE STORMS MOVE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GROW INTO AT
LEAST ONE LARGE COMPLEX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD
PREPARE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

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