Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TSTM COMPLEX
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
ACTIVITY ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING SEEMS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
LAST NIGHT. WILL USE THE HIGH RES MODEL DATA TO TIME THE BETTER TSRA
CHANCES TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR WITH THE TSRA...OTRW GENLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014/

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A FLATTENED RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. WITHIN THIS FLOW...SEVERAL IMPULSES
ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE RIPPLES WILL ACT TO
INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO VIRTUALLY EACH DAY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. AS STORMS EVENTUALLY MERGE...LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND
MCSS APPEAR PROBABLE...MUCH LIKE THE ONE THAT MOVED ACROSS KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TWO NIGHTS AGO...AND ACROSS OKLAHOMA LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THESE NOCTURNAL STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING
BENEFICIAL RAIN...PERHAPS TOO BENEFICIAL IN SOME AREAS...AND THE
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH IMPRESSIVE PWAT VALUES
OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN...WESTERN...AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
SPATIALLY AND/OR TEMPORALLY IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS IS THE
BEST GUESS AT THIS POINT.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED LOW
WILL EVOLVE...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO AN END BY MID WEEK.
THEREAFTER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME
REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH A RETURN OF SUMMER
HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  87  68  83 /  70  50  70  60
HOBART OK         71  89  68  84 /  70  30  70  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  95  71  89 /  30  20  60  40
GAGE OK           67  82  63  76 /  80  50  70  30
PONCA CITY OK     70  82  65  78 /  90  60  50  50
DURANT OK         73  90  73  87 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OKZ004>032-034-035.

TX...NONE.
&&

26/84

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