River Flood Warning 5, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSRA WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN NW OK THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AND
WILL EXTEND 10-20 NM SE OF THE AREA OF TSRA. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THE CURRENT SET OF STORMS WILL REACH KLAW/KOKC/KOUN...BUT WITH
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND A MUCH WEAKER CAP...SCT TO BKN AREAS OF
TSRA ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN SPREADING SLOWLY SE WITH TIME. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MAINLY TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES
A BIT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF A ARNETT TO PONCA CITY LINE.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WE CONTINUE MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...SO
THIS MAY DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF IT
DOES...IT COULD SPEED UP AND MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 2 AM. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR LIBERAL TO GREENSBURG
KANSAS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OVERALL...DELAYED MOST STORM
CHANCES THIS EVENING UNTIL AFTER 10 PM.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH AND HAIL TO GOLF BALLS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGH AMOUNTS OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT
SHEAR IS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE STORMS. NOT
SURE HOW STORMS WILL EVOLVE TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA HAS THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...POSSIBLY LOCALLY MORE...
COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. WILL
LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS.

DRIER AIR AND LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY LIMIT
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO IS ORGANIZING
AND MOVING GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHER STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM SHORTLY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  DIFFICULT FORECAST TO TIME IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
IMPACTING TERMINAL SITES BUT GAG/WWR/CSM AND PNC HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT SHOULD FAVOR STORMS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD BUT VERY WARM 7H TEMPS MAY LIMIT SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT
AT LEAST OVERNIGHT. IF STORMS ORGANIZE ENOUGH THIS EVENING AND
COLD POOL IS DEEP ENOUGH...OKC/OUN COULD SEE STORMS BY AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW HOWEVER. LAW/SPS MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL HEATING/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE HEAT IS ON...AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEWS DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES AND A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRING SOLID RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A FRONT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...SW KS AND NW OK.
WITH SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING...THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EVENING...AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS CONGEAL...ONE OR MORE STORM
CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST INTO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. INITIAL SEVERE THREATS WILL INCLUDE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...INDICATED BY PWATS OF 1.5
TO 2.0 INCHES...AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILL IN BEHIND SHOWERS AND STORMS
TOMORROW AS THE FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD...WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
TOMORROW...WITH A REGENERATION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...WE EXPECT ANOTHER OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX TO ROLL ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...THIS TIME A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THE PROCESS WILL REPEAT
ITSELF ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
OVERNIGHT STORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE TREND
SHOULD BE DRIER WITH SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS AN EXERCISE IN FUZZY
FORECASTING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE WINDING DOWN ON
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. A FEW MORE SHORTWAVES WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP
CHANCES WITH THESE WAVES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  86  68  88  66 /  40  60  40  30
HOBART OK         86  68  86  67 /  40  70  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  73  88  71 /  10  60  40  50
GAGE OK           80  62  86  65 /  60  40  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     83  64  85  62 /  50  30  10  10
DURANT OK         92  73  88  69 /   0  50  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004>006-009>011.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/25/23

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW ALVA              36.71N 98.72W
07/01/2014  E62 MPH          WOODS              OK   MESONET

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

OKZ004-005-010-010600-
WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-WOODS OK-
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WOODWARD...
NORTHEASTERN HARPER AND WOODS COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1236 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FREEDOM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9860 3660 9855 3652 9898 3700 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 266DEG 32KT 3683 9908

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

OKZ004-009>011-015-010615-
WOODWARD OK-HARPER OK-DEWEY OK-MAJOR OK-ELLIS OK-
1253 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODWARD...HARPER...NORTHWESTERN
DEWEY...SOUTHWESTERN MAJOR AND ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1248 AM CDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WERE LOCATED FROM BUFFALO TO
WOODWARD AND GAGE. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9948 3620 9868 3600 9977 3601 9985
      3596 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 229DEG 39KT 3655 9972

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