Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
323 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY AND WILL
PROVIDE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST
BY LATE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS A SFC LOW WILL BRING IN A WEDGE OF
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR... ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WILL UPGRADE FIRE WX WATCH TO RED FLAG
WARNING. WIND SPEEDS STILL LOOK TO DECREASE LATER IN THE AFTN...
WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THESE CONDITIONS.

BEYOND THIS... MAIN FOCUS IS FOR THE MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS STORM LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST AND WILL MAKE MOVE EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES... A VERY COLD
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS
OF THIS AIRMASS TO SOME DEGREE BY SAT AFTN... BUT WILL COME SOUTH
IN FULL FORCE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE
SOUTH.

AS THESE PIECES COME TOGETHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
AND SUNDAY... EXPECT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HAVE GONE
COLDER AS THE MODELS CONT TO TREND THAT WAY AS THEY TRY AND GET A
HANDLE ON THE AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DEEPEN THE COLD
AIR ENOUGH THAT IT APPEARS THAT A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP MAY FALL
IN THE FORM OF SLEET DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WITH MORE SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE RED RIVER. ALSO...
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONT
NEAR THE RED RIVER SUN MORNING.

PRECIP AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE......LIKELY MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT WITH THE TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS EVENT... EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH ICY ROADWAYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END SUNDAY EVENING WITH JUST
THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS LEFT BEHIND. WIND CHILLS BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA AND MAY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A REBOUND IN THE TEMPS BY MID-WEEK. BY THIS
TIME THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  37  56  24 /  20  10  10  60
HOBART OK         69  35  57  26 /  10   0  10  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  39  70  36 /  10   0  10  30
GAGE OK           64  27  42  17 /   0   0  10  40
PONCA CITY OK     56  29  38  18 /  30   0  20  70
DURANT OK         71  43  70  39 /  20  10  10  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

06/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST THU FEB 27 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-281300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-
JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-
COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-
HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1152 AM CST THU FEB 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY FEB 28.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...0 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY DUE TO VERY DRY... WARM... AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE... ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 5 AM FRIDAY.

MBS/JTK