Red Flag Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Knox County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

913 
WWUS84 KOUN 030425 AAA
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY...

OKZ033>038-044-TXZ083>090-031300-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0019.140403T1600Z-140404T0300Z/
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN NORTH 
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST 20 TO 25
  MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...75 TO 85 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

OKZ021>023-027>029-039>041-045-046-050-031300-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.A.0016.140403T1600Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
1125 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* WIND...WEST TO SOUTHWEST SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST...20 TO 25
  MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...12 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...75 TO 85 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

&&

$$

MBS

376 
WWUS84 KOUN 030832
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY...

OKZ021>023-027>029-039>041-045-046-050-040300-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0016.140403T1600Z-140404T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KOUN.FW.W.0019.140403T1500Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
332 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
  THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...12 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...78 TO 90 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE TO
YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

OKZ033>038-044-TXZ083>090-040300-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FW.W.0019.140403T1500Z-140404T0300Z/
HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-COTTON-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
332 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH...SWITCHING TO THE
  NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...8 TO 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...80 TO 90 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE TO
YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

179 
WWUS84 KOUN 030854
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
354 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY...

OKZ024>026-030>032-042-047-051-040300-
/O.EXA.KOUN.FW.W.0019.140403T1500Z-140404T0300Z/
CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-PONTOTOC-
JOHNSTON-MARSHALL-
354 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOW HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...SWITCHING TO THE
  NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS 0F 30 TO
  35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* HUMIDITY...8 TO 15 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...80 TO 90 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

OKZ021>023-027>029-033>041-044>046-050-TXZ083>090-040300-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0019.140403T1500Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-
JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-LOVE-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-
CLAY-
354 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOW HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTHERN...AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

* WINDS...FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN NORTH
  TEXAS...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...WINDS OF 20 TO
  25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT
  FROM WEST OR SOUTHWEST...TO NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
  THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...8 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...78 TO 90 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

143 
WWUS84 KOUN 031554
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TODAY...

OKZ021>042-044>047-050-051-TXZ083>090-040000-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-LOVE-MARSHALL-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-
KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1054 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES... GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
  AROUND 45 MPH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
  FRONT... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
  OCCUR UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL
  THEN BECOME NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...8 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...78 TO 90 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

895 
WWUS84 KOUN 032021
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...VERY HIGH WILDFIRE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

OKZ023>032-040-042-047-051-032130-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140404T0300Z/
CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-GARVIN-PONTOTOC-JOHNSTON-MARSHALL-
321 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. 

$$

OKZ021-022-033>039-041-044>046-050-TXZ083>090-040300-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-
STEPHENS-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-HARDEMAN-FOARD-
WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
321 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR.
  NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. 

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...78 TO 88 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

744 
WWUS84 KOUN 040119
RFWOUN

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
819 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014


OKZ021-022-033>035-038-039-041-044>046-050-TXZ090-040230-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140404T0300Z/
BECKHAM-WASHITA-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-MURRAY-
COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-CLAY-
819 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.


$$

OKZ036-037-TXZ083>089-040300-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140404T0300Z/
JACKSON-TILLMAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-
819 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR SOME AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

* WINDS... WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR.
  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT BEFORE WIND CHANGES TO NORTH.

* TEMPERATURE...70 TO 80 DEGREES BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR 
  BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REFRAIN FROM BURNING...OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK A FIRE
SUCH AS OPERATING HEAVY MACHINERY OVER DRY VEGETATION...THROWING
CIGARETTES OUT OF YOUR VEHICLE....OR WORKING WITH WELDING
EQUIPMENT OUTDOORS.

FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 3-6Z THURSDAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.  WINDS WILL BACK TONIGHT
AND MVFR CEILINGS MAY FORM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. STORM COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SO WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS.  A COLD FRONT
AND DRY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

UPDATE...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT TO THE KS OK BORDER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE... A DRYLINE
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE FA THIS AFTN WITH IT
INTERSECTING THE WARM FRONT IN NW OK. A STRONG CAP IS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER... THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND THEN TO A LESSER EXTENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IF A FEW STORMS DO
DEVELOP... SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY... BUT WIDESPREAD
STORMS/SEVERE WX IS NOT EXPECTED.

FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE STILL A CONCERN BEHIND THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTN SO WILL CONT WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING. UPDATES OUT SOON.

MAXWELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST ONCE AGAIN GIVEN PESKY WARM
FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO RETREAT NWD. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST FROM KGAG/KWWR DOWN THROUGH KOUN/KOKC AND KPNC.
ALONG WITH PATCHY BR...CIGS SHOULD LIFT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH BKN INTERMITTENT MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
18-20Z. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN PROB30S
FROM KPNC TO KOUN/KOKC. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY SPOTTY...TOO MUCH SO
FOR ANY PREVAILING GROUPS. CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE BY 06Z...AND
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT WESTERN TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL..INCLUDING POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS...AND
EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. VERY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND AS THIS AIR CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA DOWN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED THAT THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE OVERCOME DUE
IN PART TO IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSTANTIAL SFC
HEATING/CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. LARGE
SCALE MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS A LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHILE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A MUCH MORE ISOLATED SCENARIO WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO
STORMS. EITHER WAY...IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM IN THE WRONG PLACE TO
MAKE A MAJOR IMPACT...SO TODAY WILL BE ONE WORTH WATCHING. SHOULD
STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY WITH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF TENNIS
BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IN THE 6 PM TO 9 PM TIMEFRAME FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES FROM MAINLY CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL AND WINDS.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO THE NIGHT...BUT
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS COMBINED WITH APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING. THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN TODAY
WILL BE EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE OVER
EXTREME WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA TODAY.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST...BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO OVER MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WEST OF THE MIXING DRYLINE...WILDFIRE
DANGER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...PROMPTING
ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SFC RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE
CONVERGED AROUND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SEVERAL IMPULSES
EJECTING ABOUT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. CHANCES WILL DECREASE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. ONE BIT OF GOOD NEWS WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
THAT LACKING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE NON SEVERE CATEGORY. WE CAN ONLY HOPE
FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  80  40  61 /  30  10  10   0
HOBART OK         58  76  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  82  44  67 /  10   0  10   0
GAGE OK           48  64  33  63 /   0  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     60  74  36  59 /  50  10  10   0
DURANT OK         69  86  47  64 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR OKZ021>023-027>029-033>041-044>046-050.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1152 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A WOODWARD TO ALTUS TO SEYMOUR
LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES OKLAHOMA CITY...WICHITA FALLS...
LAWTON...STILLWATER...ENID...PONCA CITY...WEATHERFORD...ADA...
ARDMORE...AND DURANT.

TIMING...
THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
4 AND 10 PM. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 10
PM THIS EVENING...BUT THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG.

IMPACTS...
VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS OR BASEBALLS WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED NEAR THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE INTERSECTING THE FRONT IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM... A STRONG CAP WILL HAMPER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT LIFT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AND AFTERNOON HEATING COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT INITIATION FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR... ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN... BUT STRONG
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...SEVERE STORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY DECREASE...SOME
SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE DRYLINE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH 10 PM
TODAY DUE TO BREEZY...HOT...AND DRY CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

.THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH 4 PM THURSDAY
EAST OF I-35. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN
HAZARDS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY OCCUR WEST OF A
DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING DUE
TO BREEZY...WARM...AND DRY CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
WFO NORMAN ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

MBS/MA/EM/BT/KB