Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Spokane, WA

147 
WGUS76 KOTX 141545
FFSOTX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
845 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

WAC007-141645-
/O.CON.KOTX.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140814T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHELAN WA-
845 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM PDT FOR
CENTRAL CHELAN COUNTY...

AT 842 AM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FIRST CREEK AND DUNCAN BURN BURN SCARS 
WILL RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST OF 
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD CAMPGROUND...25 MILE CREEK STATE PARK...LAKE CHELAN STATE
PARK...MANSON...FOX CREEK CAMPGROUND...RAMONA PARK CAMPGROUND...
GROUSE MOUNTAIN CAMPGROUND AND SILVER FALLS CAMPGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

THE AFFECTED AREAS ARE THE FIRST CREEK FIRE BURN SCARS IN THE FIRST 
CREEK AND GRANITE CREEK DRAINAGES THAT DRAIN INTO LAKE CHELAN. HIGH 
INTENSITY RAINFALL ON THE BURNED AREAS MAY CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH 
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. RESIDENTS...RECREATIONISTS...AND 
MOTORISTS IN AND BELOW THE FIRST CREEK FIRE BURN SCAR...INCLUDING 
THOSE IN LAKE CHELAN STATE PARK...SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS 
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4801 12011 4784 12007 4791 12065 4809 12066

$$

RP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
426 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will result in continued showers
and thunderstorms through Friday. Some storms could be strong
producing very heavy rain...hail...and gusty winds. Seasonal
temperatures and drier conditions is a good bet for next weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A closed low over North Central Oregon will
remain nearly stationary today and then slowly track into
Northeast Washington on Friday. This will result in a continuation
of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland Northwest. Overall
today with the low over North Central Oregon there will be higher
shear over the Idaho Panhandle and adjacent portion of Eastern
Washington. This could lead to stronger cells with uncapped CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/KG. Hail will be the main threat from the
stronger cells.  On Friday with the cold core of the low over the
area...and very moist low levels...shower activity is expected to
be widespread with isolated thunderstorms in the valleys and
scattered thunderstorms in the mountains. Slow moving
thunderstorms in the Cascades will result in a continued threat
for flash flooding especially over burn scar areas. JW

Friday night through Saturday: The Low will continue to impact
the region as it slowly moves across the Inland Northwest. The
moisture and instability associated with the Low will interact
with the afternoon high temperatures and bring the chance of
isolated thunderstorms and rain showers to the Inland Northwest
for Friday. Localized high winds and heavy downpours possible with
stronger cells in this pattern. Locations outside of these cells
could see a a few hundredths of an inch of rain over the period.
The Low is expected to exit the region by late Saturday afternoon
and decrease the threat of showers and thunder to the northern and
eastern mountains. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s and
low 80s on Friday to mid 80s to low 90s on Friday.

Sunday through Thursday: As Low continues to skirt through
Northern Montana, models are showing potential for isolated
showers in the northern mountains with a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. A quieter weather will begin to build into a region
as a slight Northwest oriented zonal flow pattern will build into
the region. This is expected to lead to a fairly precip free
pattern except for an occasional shower forming along the Canadian
Border. Wednesday would be be the best chance for widespread
precip and thunderstorms as a trough clips the northern regions
of Washington and Idaho. Temperatures are expected to be on the
warmer side of the season normals and drop to near the normals on
Wednesday and Thursday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region
through tonight. CIGS should remain generally VFR...although brief
MVFR can not be ruled out under the cores of stronger storms.
Storms will produce heavy rain and the potential for small hail.
JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  61  78  62  84  62 /  70  50  70  30  20  10
Coeur d'Alene  80  58  77  59  81  59 /  70  60  70  30  20  10
Pullman        77  55  78  56  82  55 /  70  60  70  20  10  10
Lewiston       83  63  84  65  90  66 /  60  60  60  20  10  10
Colville       82  55  82  56  86  56 /  70  60  70  60  30  20
Sandpoint      79  55  74  53  77  52 /  70  70  70  60  30  20
Kellogg        76  57  72  58  76  58 /  70  70  70  50  40  10
Moses Lake     81  61  83  62  90  63 /  70  40  30  20  10  10
Wenatchee      79  66  83  67  89  69 /  70  50  50  40  10  10
Omak           81  59  84  65  89  64 /  70  50  60  50  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
524 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031>038-041>044-151230-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
524 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
WET AND BURN SCAR AREAS IN THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE
TO DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
WET AND BURN SCAR AREAS IN THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE
TO DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. SOME STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.