Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Spokane, WA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
234 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will result in continued showers
and thunderstorms through Friday. Some storms could be strong
producing very heavy rain...hail...and gusty winds. Seasonal
temperatures and drier conditions is a good bet for next weekend
into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...A closed low over North Central Oregon will
remain nearly stationary today and then slowly track into
Northeast Washington on Friday. This will result in a continuation
of showers and thunderstorms over the Inland Northwest. Overall
today with the low over North Central Oregon there will be higher
shear over the Idaho Panhandle and adjacent portion of Eastern
Washington. This could lead to stronger cells with uncapped CAPE
values of 500-1000 J/KG. Hail will be the main threat from the
stronger cells.  On Friday with the cold core of the low over the
area...and very moist low levels...shower activity is expected to
be widespread with isolated thunderstorms in the valleys and
scattered thunderstorms in the mountains. Slow moving
thunderstorms in the Cascades will result in a continued threat
for flash flooding especially over burn scar areas. JW

Friday night through Saturday: The Low will continue to impact
the region as it slowly moves across the Inland Northwest. The
moisture and instability associated with the Low will interact
with the afternoon high temperatures and bring the chance of
isolated thunderstorms and rain showers to the Inland Northwest
for Friday. Localized high winds and heavy downpours possible with
stronger cells in this pattern. Locations outside of these cells
could see a a few hundredths of an inch of rain over the period.
The Low is expected to exit the region by late Saturday afternoon
and decrease the threat of showers and thunder to the northern and
eastern mountains. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s and
low 80s on Friday to mid 80s to low 90s on Friday.

Sunday through Thursday: As Low continues to skirt through
Northern Montana, models are showing potential for isolated
showers in the northern mountains with a slight chance of a
thunderstorm. A quieter weather will begin to build into a region
as a slight Northwest oriented zonal flow pattern will build into
the region. This is expected to lead to a fairly precip free
pattern except for an occasional shower forming along the Canadian
Border. Wednesday would be be the best chance for widespread
precip and thunderstorms as a trough clips the northern regions
of Washington and Idaho. Temperatures are expected to be on the
warmer side of the season normals and drop to near the normals on
Wednesday and Thursday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Increasing showers and thunderstorms will move north out
of Oregon the rest of the night, likely producing lowering
ceilings and isolated thunder. VFR conditions expected though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        80  61  78  62  84  62 /  70  50  70  30  20  10
Coeur d'Alene  80  58  77  59  81  59 /  70  60  70  30  20  10
Pullman        77  55  78  56  82  55 /  70  60  70  20  10  10
Lewiston       83  63  84  65  90  66 /  60  60  60  20  10  10
Colville       82  55  82  56  86  56 /  70  60  70  60  30  20
Sandpoint      79  55  74  53  77  52 /  70  70  70  60  30  20
Kellogg        76  57  72  58  76  58 /  70  70  70  50  40  10
Moses Lake     81  61  83  62  90  63 /  70  40  30  20  10  10
Wenatchee      79  66  83  67  89  69 /  70  50  50  40  10  10
Omak           81  59  84  65  89  64 /  70  50  60  50  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Okanogan Valley-Wenatchee Area.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
535 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

IDZ001>004-026-027-WAZ031>038-041>044-141245-
NORTHERN PANHANDLE-COEUR D'ALENE AREA-IDAHO PALOUSE-
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS-LEWISTON AREA-
LEWIS AND SOUTHERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES-NORTHEAST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
LOWER GARFIELD AND ASOTIN COUNTIES-WASHINGTON PALOUSE-
MOSES LAKE AREA-UPPER COLUMBIA BASIN-SPOKANE AREA-
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS-OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS-WENATCHEE AREA-
EAST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES-OKANOGAN VALLEY-WATERVILLE PLATEAU-
535 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH IDAHO...
NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO...CENTRAL WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON...NORTHEAST WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...LEWISTON
AREA...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS COULD BE
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. IN THE CASCADES STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCARS.

NEW FIRE STARTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
OMAK TO MOSES LAKE ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. BURN SCAR AREAS WILL ALSO
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING WITH STORMS
THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
949 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

IDZ003-026-140530-
LEWISTON AREA ID-IDAHO PALOUSE ID-
949 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LATAH AND
NORTHWESTERN NEZ PERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM PDT...

AT 947 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAPWAI...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.  MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAPWAI...GENESEE AND SPALDING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 11682 4635 11688 4655 11694 4656 11665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 183DEG 13KT 4640 11684

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1055 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

IDZ003-004-026-140645-
LEWISTON AREA ID-CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS ID-IDAHO PALOUSE ID-
1055 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LATAH AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEZ PERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM PDT...

AT 1054 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER JULIAETTA...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF LAPWAI...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...JULIAETTA AND KENDRICK.

LAT...LON 4647 11671 4648 11679 4674 11677 4669 11645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0554Z 195DEG 9KT 4654 11673

SB