Special Weather Statement, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
455 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY AND SLOWLY
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
IS THEN FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. TSTM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN HOWEVER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND CAPE DIMINISHES. BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CAPE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA
PLUS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NYC AND
WESTERN LONG ISLAND BEACHES THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT IT REACHES JUST WEST OF THE CWA NEAR SUNDOWN. BY SUNRISE ON
FRIDAY...IT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES...A SURFACE TROUGH WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...AND LIFT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SHOWERS THEN REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. SBCAPE FORECAST AREA-WIDE OF MOSTLY 1500-2500 J/KG AND DECENT
BULK SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

PWAT VALUES REMAIN AT AROUND 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE FROM ARTHUR BEGINS
TO STREAM NORTHWARD...EVENTUALLY GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. RAINFALL THEREFORE COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. URBANIZED FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY...BUT SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND
WHERE THIS FLOODING THREAT IS HIGHER.

850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL DOWN TO 17C...AND WITH AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES...LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM MOS FOR HIGHS. WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90-95 RANGE. THERE COULD BE A SPOT
OR TWO IN THE CITY THAT REACHES A HEAT INDEX OF 95 THAT REACHED 95
OR HIGHER TODAY...BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A WIDESPREAD
OCCURRENCE. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL THEREFORE NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.

RAIN ENDS WEST TO EAST DURING FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT HEADS
EAST...WITH MOST SPOTS DRY BY SUNDOWN. A MAV/NAM MOS BLEND LOOKED
GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY PASSING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES THEN QUICKLY
CLEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPS DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES
SATURDAY BUT REBOUND TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS.

RISING HEIGHTS FLATTEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW BUILDING IN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS WARM BACK UP
STARTING ON MON AND REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO STAY WARM AND INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

CLOUDS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A THERMAL TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE RAIN THEN MOVES
THROUGH MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY BUT LOOKS MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE
FOR TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
SURPRISINGLY GOOD GLOBAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES AS WELL WITH RAIN ENDING BY 12Z WED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...PRECEDED BY A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL TROFS.

THE FIRST TROF WILL INTERACT WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST
WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EARLY THIS EVE...TRIGGERING
TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS AND THEN WORK EAST INTO NYC. WEAKENING OF THE STORMS IS
EXPECTED AS THEY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. REGARDLESS...
THIS WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT TO AIR TRAFFIC...SEE ZNY GRAPHICS.

S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A
TROF AND WEAK SFC WAVE APPROACH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INLAND...AND E/SE ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE
WEAK SFC WAVE.

THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORMATION OF ANY COASTAL
STRATUS/FOG AND THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THU AFT/EVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSTMS TO THE
WEST IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EVE. S WINDS G25-30KT
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSTMS TO THE
WEST IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EVE.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFT/EVE. WINDS MAY VARY FROM 140-170.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TSTMS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFT/EVE. WINDS MAY VARY FROM 140-170.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSTMS IMPACTING
THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EVE. WINDS MAY VARY FROM 140-170.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CONFIDENCE ON TSTMS TO THE WEST IMPACTING
THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFT/EARLY THIS EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THU AFT-FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS. SW WINDS G20-25 KT POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.
.FRI NGT...BECOMING VFR. N-NW WINDS G25 KT POSSIBLE.
.SAT-SUN...VFR.
.MON...VFR. SW WINDS G20-25 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SCA POSTED UNTIL 8PM FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AND NY HARBOR WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT. FOR TOMORROW...THERE IS
A POTENTIAL OF SIMILAR GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR
THE SAME AREAS. ASIDE FROM THIS...A SCA WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY EVENING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD IN RESPONSE SWELLS FROM ARTHUR TO THE SOUTH.

RIGHT NOW...GUSTS TO 34KT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DO NOT
LOOK LIKELY. HOWEVER...ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL OCEAN
WATERS...WITH DANGEROUS CONDS AROUND INLETS FOR BOATING INTERESTS
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN IN TIME FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONVECTION THROUGH EVENING FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NYC...AND
NE NJ AND POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST CT AND LONG ISLAND. WILL RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM AS LITTLE AS A TENTH OF AN INCH...TO AS MUCH AS AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY TO
OCCUR OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINOR URBANIZED...SMALL STREAM
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE
REALIZED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. FLASH
FLOODING OF URBANIZED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. SMALL STREAM FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. DUE TO
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...CT AND LI ARE LESS LIKELY TO REQUIRE FLOOD
WARNINGS AT ANY POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS TO SEE IF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
EXPANDED EAST INTO THESE AREAS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
     355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/LN
HYDROLOGY...JC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
310 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NYZ067-022000-
ORANGE-
310 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 307 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILFORD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR PORT JERVIS BY 325 PM.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNIONVILLE BY 335 PM.
  NEAR OTISVILLE BY 350 PM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4150 7468 4151 7452 4134 7434 4128 7454
      4130 7457 4130 7458 4136 7470 4138 7471
      4140 7475 4142 7474 4143 7476 4145 7476

MET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
426 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW EDEN              41.28N  74.52W
07/02/2014                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIRES WERE KNOCKED DOWN AND ARCING REPORTED ON OIL CITY
            ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PICCA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
451 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BLOOMING GROVE     41.40N  74.21W
07/02/2014                   ORANGE             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FARMINGDALE RD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREE. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

PICCA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ005-NYZ067>070-022130-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
452 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ORANGE...FAIRFIELD...
PUTNAM...ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST POINT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE...
  NEAR PEEKSKILL BY 500 PM.
  5 MILES SOUTH OF FAHNESTOCK STATE PARK BY 510 PM.
  NEAR MAHOPAC BY 515 PM.
  NEAR CARMEL BY 520 PM.
  NEAR BREWSTER BY 525 PM.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO A HALF INCH AN
HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4134 7341 4119 7402 4130 7421 4150 7385
      4152 7372 4152 7369

MET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STONY POINT             41.23N  74.00W
07/02/2014                   ROCKLAND           NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE BRANCH/LIMB DOWN ACROSS MAJOR ANDRE DRIVE

&&

LN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
552 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

CTZ006-022215-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
552 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY...

AT 550 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WATERBURY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4163 7293 4157 7294 4157 7288 4156 7288
      4144 7319 4151 7327 4152 7317 4156 7316
      4157 7310 4159 7308 4159 7306 4162 7305
      4163 7302 4165 7294