Gale Warning 8, NWS New York, NY

408 
WHUS71 KOKX 151610
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1110 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

ANZ350-353-355-152300-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-140215T2100Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.140215T2100Z-140216T1600Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
1110 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...SANDY HOOK NJ TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...INCREASING TO 
  NORTH 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT BY THIS EVENING.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON
  AND INTO TONIGHT.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
  STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-345-152300-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.140215T2100Z-140216T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
1110 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE EASTERN AND 
  SOUTHERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST
  WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-152300-
/O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0020.140215T2100Z-140216T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
1110 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION..WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE 
  STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY 
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

572 
WHUS71 KOKX 152055
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...ROUGH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...

ANZ335-338-160915-
/O.EXB.KOKX.GL.W.0008.140215T2055Z-140216T1100Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SC.Y.0020.140215T2100Z-140216T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION..WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND NEW YORK HARBOR.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
  WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-350-353-355-160915-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0008.140215T2055Z-140216T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND THE EASTERN AND 
  SOUTHERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 6 FEET BUILDING TO 6 TO 9 FEET TONIGHT ON THE OCEAN
  WATERS.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
  WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILD THIS EVENING WITH
  THE HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ345-160915-
/O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0008.140215T2055Z-140216T1100Z/
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
355 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
  WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

250 
WHUS71 KOKX 160913
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
413 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...ROUGH CONDITIONS TO LINGER ON THE WATERS TODAY...

ANZ335-338-345-161500-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140216T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0021.140216T0913Z-140216T1500Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
413 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. 

* LOCATION..WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...NEW YORK HARBOR...AND THE
  SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
  MORNING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ330-340-350-353-355-161600-
/O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140216T1600Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
413 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO MONTAUK POINT NY
  OUT 20 NM...EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS
  BAYS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.

* SEAS...5 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN WATERS...AND 2 TO 4 FT ON LONG
  ISLAND SOUND,

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
  MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
  TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 34 TO
47 KT ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE
CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT
IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE
SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

791 
WHUS71 KOKX 161428
MWWOKX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
928 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...ROUGH CONDITIONS TO LINGER ON THE WATERS TODAY...

ANZ330-340-350-353-355-162230-
/O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140216T1600Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-140216T2300Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
928 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATION...PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...EASTERN LONG ISLAND
  SOUND...SANDY HOOK NJ TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

* SEAS...4 TO 7 FEET.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ335-338-161530-
/O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-140216T1500Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
928 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

ANZ345-162230-
/O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-140216T2300Z/
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
928 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION..SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK
  BAY. 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* TIMING...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 33 KT AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FT OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK LOW MOVES
IN AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...EXITING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS GIVES WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
BUILDING IN. A SERIES OF LOWS THEN PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST OBS. STILL WATCHING THE TREND OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TO SEE
IF THE TREND OF A WETTER SOLUTION CONTINUES ON FROM THE 18Z RUN.

WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH BRIEF
RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE
STEADYING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE MID
WEST TODAY...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT...AND THEN UP THE COAST ON
SAT AS IT BEGINS PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN UNCERTAINTY...LIES IN HOW QUICKLY
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY PHASE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM TURNED COASTAL LOW
TRACKING NE...NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK ON SAT/SAT EVE.

LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LEFT
FRONT OF 120+KT UPPER JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION SAT MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...BUT A MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TO START WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW A START AS RAIN ACROSS THE CITY/COAST. ANY INCREASED
INTENSITY ON PRECIP SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL THIS COLUMN TO
ISOTHERMAL AND BACK TO SNOW...LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE
UPPER/SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS SE OF THE REGION SAT AFT/EVE...WITH A
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING SIGNATURE ON THE NW FLANK OF THE UPPER
LOW. MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS...AND THEREFORE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS INTENSE SNOW
BANDING GETS. 12Z GFS HAS TREND JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK...AND
12Z EURO HAS TRENDED OVER THE BENCHMARK...PLACING HEAVY SNOW
BANDING OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT...AND A PERIOD OF DEFORMATION
BANDING FURTHER WEST. 12Z NAM/UKMET ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THIS
HEAVY BAND MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE...BUT AM LEARY OF THIS DRIER
SOLUTION BASED ON THE STRONG JET/SHORTWAVE FORCING. 12Z GEM KEEPS
MAIN FRONTOGENETIC BANDING OFFSHORE...BUT DEVELOPS SOME
DEFORMATION BANDING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE 12Z
ECMWF/15Z SREF/12Z GEFS IN TERMS OF QPF...BASED ON THEIR MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION AND BETTER CONVEYANCE OF BANDING UNCERTAINTY.

BASED ON THIS WETTER...CLOSER TO THE COAST TREND...AND AGREEMENT
ON STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING...HAVE INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE REGION. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. BASED ON
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONTOGENETIC BANDING TO WORK INTO FAR
EASTERN AREAS AND DROP 6+ INCHES OF SNOW...WILL ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR NEW LONDON COUNTY AND EASTERN LI. POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+
INCHES PER HOUR AND 1/4 MILE OR LESS VSBY SAT AFT/EVE

SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR WESTERN LI AND MIDDLESEX/NEW HAVEN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE AN ADVISORY THERE. A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE
HERE.

FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF THE
INTENSE BANDING LEND TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF PRECIP.
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
HERE. LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WELL N&W OF NYC. WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE IN 3+ INCHES WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.

THE OTHER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS LATE SAT/SAT EVE
TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL FURTHER RAMP UP
TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH SAT NIGHT...HIGHEST EAST. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRACK OFF TO THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD HAVE ANY SNOW BANDING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS COMING TO AN
END. MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE...WITH
15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH...HIGHEST COAST AND
EAST. A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AREAS. A SHOT OF CAA WILL HAVE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
INTERIOR AND LOWER 20S COAST...WITH WIND CHILLS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO CITY/COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN ALTERNATING TROUGH AND
RIDGE PATTERN WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. LIKEWISE...THE JET STREAM INITIALLY WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES COMMENCING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE JET WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL GOING THROUGH THE WEEK
WHILE SLOWLY MOVING BACK NORTH. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS. MONDAY NIGHT FEATURES LOWS STILL BELOW
NORMAL BUT BY NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK LOW MOVES IN AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT. THIS LASTS THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...EXITING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS GIVES WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BUILDING IN. HOWEVER...THE HIGH
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH A SERIES OF LOWS PASSING NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK. ASSOCIATED WARM AND COLD FRONTS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS DURING THAT PERIOD.

CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LEAST SIGNIFICANT WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
DEVOID OF MOISTURE INFLUX. THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING WITH PERHAPS
JUST SOME SNOW FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH SUCH THAT DESPITE AN ONSHORE FLOW...THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL HELP INITIATE PRECIP FORCING WITH SNOW BECOMING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH ENOUGH WARMING ON THE ONSHORE FLOW...EVENTUALLY PRECIP
WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ACCOUNTING FOR MODEL QPF FIELDS.

THE REST OF THE WEEK...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
FOR THE COAST WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIP. MODEL DISAGREEMENT LEADS TO POPS BEING
GENERALLY 25 PERCENT OR LESS...MAKING FOR TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT
OF PRECIP LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN HEAD NORTHEAST
NORTHEAST WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.

VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. TAF SHOWS CONDS LOWERING TO MVFR SAT MORNING
AFTER 13Z-14Z...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN FOR
A TIME AT THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...AND MAY
EVEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME AT KGON/KISP...BUT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GO BACK TO ALL SNOW WITH LIFR CONDS. TOTAL SNOWFALL
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES...BUT HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO 6 INCHES MAY
BE POSSIBLE OUT EAST AT KBDR/KISP/KGON.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ENE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN BACK NE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND GUST UP TO 20-25 KT AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN.
SAT EVENING WINDS BECOME N-NW 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...
STRONGEST EAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...

.LATE TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 15-20G25-35KT.
.SUNDAY-MON...VFR. W WINDS.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...CHANGING TO
RAIN DURING THE DAY.
.WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL WATERS...REPLACED WITH SCA
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTING SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW. RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SE OF THE REGION SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. SCA WINDS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH GALE POTENTIAL LATE SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH STRONG GRADIENT IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE.
GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SCA
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEAS
TONIGHT...AND THE PSBL 25 KT GUSTS TOMORROW PRIOR TO THE GALES

THEN SCA LIKELY FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA LIKELY
ON THE OCEAN WITH OTHER WATERS GRADUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA. SEAS
INTO SCA CRITERIA LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN.
THEN...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA THEREAFTER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR 1/4 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF ACROSS
WESTERN 1/2 OF CWA...WITH 3 TO 6 TENTHS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

ONLY REMARKABLE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH AROUND 0.1 TO 0.4 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.

DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CTZ008-012.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR CTZ006-007-010-011.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ079-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ078-080.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/NV
NEAR TERM...SEARS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MET
MARINE...JM/SEARS/NV
HYDROLOGY...JM/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-160100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ340-160100-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-160100-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ350-353-160100-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-345-355-160100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

CTZ006-007-010-011-NYZ078-080-160100-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
757 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.