Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Watches in 2014
Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this flash flood watch at Jul 14, 2014, 3:58 AM EDT for 4 counties in Connecticut; 11 counties in New York; 5 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at Jul 14, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 46 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2014, 3:58 AM EDT (07:58 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jul 14, 2014, 12:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Jul 16, 2014, 9:55 AM EDT
- In force
- 46 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 30 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -231 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 891 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 159 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 185 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
736 WGUS61 KOKX 140758 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 358 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 142100- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0004.140714T1600Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 358 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX... SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC... EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX... WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
7 follow-up statements
287 WGUS61 KOKX 141650 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1250 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 142200- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 1250 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ MPS
577 WGUS61 KOKX 141915 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 315 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 151000- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 315 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON... SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION... HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHERN NASSAU... SOUTHERN QUEENS...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ MPS
821 WGUS61 KOKX 150809 FFAOKX URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-152115- /O.EXT.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-152115- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 409 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
214 WGUS61 KOKX 152018 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 418 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-161000- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 418 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-161000- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 418 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY... WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. * THE MAIN POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
397 WGUS61 KOKX 160737 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 337 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-161000- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 337 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN...EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN NASSAU...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)... ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING * SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE THE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-161800- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 337 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE THE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
702 WGUS61 KOKX 161000 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES... CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-161100- /O.EXP.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EDT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE COMMON THE LAST TWO DAYS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE $$ CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-161800- /O.CON.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 600 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NORTHERN MIDDLESEX...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK. * UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON * SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. * POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE THE FLOODING OF URBANIZED AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS...ROADWAYS...AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. IN ADDITION...SMALL STREAMS OR RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. && $$
403 WGUS61 KOKX 161355 FFAOKX FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 955 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-161500- /O.CAN.KOKX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-140716T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- 955 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ JST
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 14, 2:04 AM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:04 AM EDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT WELL WEST
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PART OF A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA TONIGHT BUT WITH STABLE LOW
LEVELS...CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING WITH FORWARD PROGRESS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPERIENCED GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS STABILIZED AFTER THE CONVECTION HAS
MOVED THROUGH AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED MORE.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY...SO AFTER
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LOWS STILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIAL MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL EPISODE MON AFT/EVE AS A DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE REGION INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PRECISE LOCATION WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO WHERE THE STALLED
BOUNDARY RESIDES. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC IN THE AFT...WITH THE CONVECTION WORKING
INTO COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EPISODE
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TUE.
THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR. UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO
ALLOW FOR TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON LATEST
FFG GUIDANCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS
TIME... BUT THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THIS FIRST EVENT WILL LIKELY SERVE AS THE
PRIMARY FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING ON TUE.
FURTHERMORE...UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE LONG NARROW CAPES
SUPPORTING SLOW RISING UPDRAFTS...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN
DEEP MOIST AIR MASSES. WHILE HAIL WILL NOT BE A THREAT...THE SHEAR
SUPPORTS POTENTIAL WET MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL LINE SEGMENTS.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 70
MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THEIR PRECIP TIMING
SINCE YESTERDAY AND KEEPS RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TUE REMAINS WARM WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CONTINUING PWATS OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOWER THAN MONDAY WHILE THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING INCREASES. LESS CAPE IS IN PLACE BUT STILL ENOUGH MU
CAPE....AROUND 1500 J/KG INTERIOR...TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AS WELL. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BUT THE THREAT IS LOW. WITH THE
RAIN THAT WILL FALL MONDAY...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES. TUESDAY
ALSO HAS GREATER LIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPPER JET
DYNAMICS WHICH WILL HELP CREATE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEE THE
HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST...POPS DECREASE WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN
LINGERING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES STARTING ON WED AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND REMAINS
THROUGH THE FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VARYING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IMPACTING THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE RESIDES WITH WINDS FOR TODAY. SW FLOW BCMG S
AFTR 12Z. SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 160-200 (TRUE)...BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PCPN TODAY WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING. FIRST ROUND WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 09Z...WITH A DRY SPELL
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PSBL AS EARLY AS 15Z
WESTERN AREAS...WITH BETTER CHC OF PCPN THEN AFTR 18Z. SCT TSTMS
LATE AFTN-EVENING...POTENTIALLY LASTING ALL NIGHT.
LOW-MOD CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VIS REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECTING
BOTH TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE MORNING AND AFTN THOUGH VIS WILL
BE REDUCED WITH ANY PCPN TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR FOG STRATUS EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS. STRONGER TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY.
.THURSDAY...VFR.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LONG ISLAND SOUND...NY HARBOR AND BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
HAVE DECREASED BELOW 25 KTS. THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST OR
TWO THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR THOSE AREAS. SEAS ARE SLOWLY RISING ON THE OCEAN AND
WILL KEEP SCA AS IT IS FOR THAT AREA.
HIGH SEAS MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT. A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW/FETCH OUT AHEAD OF MULTIPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ALLOW FOR
THE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
A SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND MOVES
THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ON ALL
WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
TUESDAY DUE TO THE RAINFALL THAT WILL FALL ON MONDAY AND THE
CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...CONTINUED
THE INCREASE IN QPF FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. THERE ARE SOME
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCREASE MORE THAN FORECAST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES REMAIN HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON OF
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS EVENING WILL BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES 2 TO 3 TENTHS
OF A FOOT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL BRING SOME
LOCATIONS TO JUST UNDER THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE...AROUND 10 PM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND
MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM SUNDAY IN THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. HOWEVER WITH A
STRENGTHENING...AND PERSIST ONSHORE FLOW TODAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHEAST SWELL...TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY RUN A LITTLE HIGHER AND BRING
SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS...TO OR
JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS TONIGHT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRING AND THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TONIGHT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
&&
SYNOPSIS...LN/DW/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...LN/DW/JM
HYDROLOGY...LN/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 9:55 PM EDT, 6 hours 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 955 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-150200- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 955 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS WELL BUT THE HIGHEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WHEN THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-150200- LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY- NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS- SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY- MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM- FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM- SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM- 955 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 10:50 PM EDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069-074-140315-
EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN
UNION-HUDSON-ORANGE-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-ROCKLAND-WESTERN
BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN UNION-
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...
PASSAIC...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN ORANGE AND
UNION COUNTIES...
AT 1047 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKLIN TO
RARITAN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF WEST MILFORD
TO SOMERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
LAT...LON 4109 7450 4121 7437 4123 7395 4055 7410
4049 7425 4054 7426 4056 7422 4060 7422
4059 7446 4066 7441 4067 7447 4074 7438
4080 7437 4082 7433 4090 7434 4091 7428
4099 7430 4102 7443 4105 7445 4103 7450
LNSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 11:15 PM EDT, 4 hours 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069>075-176-140345-
BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN
UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN
QUEENS-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-ORANGE-RICHMOND (STATEN
IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN
ESSEX-WESTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN UNION-
1115 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BERGEN...BRONX...ESSEX...
HUDSON...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...PASSAIC...
QUEENS...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN ORANGE...
UNION AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...
AT 1112 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENWOOD LAKE TO
LINDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE
TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
LAT...LON 4049 7425 4054 7426 4060 7422 4060 7446
4066 7441 4067 7447 4074 7438 4080 7437
4082 7433 4090 7434 4091 7429 4090 7428
4099 7430 4102 7441 4120 7438 4116 7380
4058 7387 4056 7400 4061 7405 4052 7413
LNThe office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 5:21 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | 54 min | |
| Jul 14, 6:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | 64 min | |
| Jul 14, 6:44 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 2 hr |
| Jul 14, 7:37 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 10:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | Richmond, Rockland | 25 min |
| Jul 13, 11:15 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | Bronx, Kings, New York, Richmond, Rockland | 30 min |
| Jul 13, 11:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Rockland, Westchester | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 11:52 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond | 113 min |
| Jul 14, 12:39 PM EDT | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | OKX | 3 hr | |
| Jul 14, 3:18 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas | OKX | 13 hr | |
| Jul 14, 4:04 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange | 116 min |
| Jul 14, 4:15 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | Rockland | 60 min |
| Jul 14, 4:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Orange, Rockland | 32 min |
| Jul 14, 5:08 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland | 82 min |
| Jul 14, 6:22 PM EDT | Marine Dense Fog Advisory | OKX | 20 hr | |
| Jul 14, 6:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Jul 14, 5:55 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union | 2 hr |
| Jul 14, 6:29 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic | 2 hr |
| Jul 14, 7:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | OKX | Union | 59 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in New York, 2014Flash Flood Watches in New Jersey, 2014Flash Flood Watches in Connecticut, 2014Every flash flood watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.