Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
317 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST...STEAMY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 70S AND THIS HAS TRANSLATED INTO SOME
RATHER IMPRESSIVE SFC CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ACCORDING
TO LAPS DATA. UPPER RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO BUILD SO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STRONG AND SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO 50-60 MPH WIND GUST
POTENTIAL...SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS ARE RATHER TALL IN NATURE. THIS HAS ALL PROMPTED A SEVERE
TSTM WATCH WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE MID STATE UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

ACTIVITY WILL CALM DOWN SOME BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT WILL STILL
CARRY A LOW POP ACROSS THE PLATEAU FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. STORMS ARE
SLOW MOVERS AS THE RIDGING INFLUENCE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE.

OTW...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN AND HOLDING INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL BE COMMONPLACE. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE
SAT- MON WITH UPPER 90S HEAT EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS. GFS MODEL
LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO LOW WITH THE DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARD THE MET. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
MAY BE REACHED THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW THOUGH...DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW ENOUGH ON THU AND FRI SO AS TO KEEP HI VALUES
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FCST.

AFTER TONIGHT...POPS WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND
WILL BE LOW. ON SATURDAY HOWEVER...A BRIEF WINDOW OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THUS...A SLIGHT POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED. OTHERWISE...FCST IS MAINLY FOR HOT AND DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      74  95  75  96 /  40  05  05  10
CLARKSVILLE    72  95  73  96 /  20  05  05  10
CROSSVILLE     68  90  69  90 /  70  20  10  10
COLUMBIA       73  95  74  97 /  20   0  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   71  95  72  97 /  20   0  05  10
WAVERLY        72  95  73  97 /  20  05  05  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
500 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
100-105 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON.

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW LEBANON            36.15N  86.40W
08/20/2014  E58 MPH          WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEMA REPORTED ESTIMATED WINDS AT OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH
            AT 840 BETWEEN CENTRAL PIKE AND STEWARTS FERRY PIKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1400534

10

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
355 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E LEBANON             36.21N  86.21W
08/20/2014                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ALONG
            TROUSDALE FERRY RD BETWEEN LEBANON AND TUCKERS
            CROSSROADS.

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT JULIET            36.21N  86.52W
08/20/2014                   WILSON             TN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0154 PM     HAIL             4 SW HARTSVILLE         36.35N  86.21W
08/20/2014  E1.00 INCH       TROUSDALE          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0219 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALEXANDRIA              36.08N  86.03W
08/20/2014  E60 MPH          DE KALB            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALEXANDRIA              36.08N  86.03W
08/20/2014                   DE KALB            TN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN THE ALEXANDRIA AREA AND ACROSS DE
            KALB COUNTY. ROOF DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES ON E. MAIN ST. IN
            ALEXANDRIA AND AT THE DE KALB COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...AND
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0247 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W SPARTA             35.93N  85.65W
08/20/2014  E60 MPH          WHITE              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
            ON BLUE SPRINGS RD.

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPARTA                  35.93N  85.47W
08/20/2014                   WHITE              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS MULITIPLE TREES DOWN
            COUNTYWIDE.

0312 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW LEBANON            36.15N  86.40W
08/20/2014  E58 MPH          WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WEMA REPORTED ESTIMATED WINDS AT OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH
            AT 840 BETWEEN CENTRAL PIKE AND STEWARTS FERRY PIKE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1400537 OHX1400532 OHX1400530 OHX1400531 OHX1400533
OHX1400535 OHX1400536 OHX1400534

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
358 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TNZ028-062-202145-
RUTHERFORD-WILSON-
358 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUTHERFORD AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALTERHILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CEDARS OF LEBANON STATE PARK...
WALTERHILL...LASCASSAS AND MILTON.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3596 8610 3596 8613 3596 8615 3593 8615
      3584 8643 3605 8654 3609 8638

27