Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MATCH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 419.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STORMS ORGANIZING AS WE SPEAK JUST W OF THE TN RIVER/N OF I-40.
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AXIS OF 3000+ J/KG CAPE AND VERY HIGH (2+
INCH) PWAT AIR. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...20-25 KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND ALREADY DEVELOPING COLD POOL BEHIND ONGOING STORMS.
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES
AS WELL GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MSTR CONTENT.

SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD BACK OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT STORM CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE AS THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVES THRU. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR
NASHVILLE BEFORE 12Z AND OUR FAR SE COUNTIES BY 18Z AT THE LATEST.
WL CARRY LOW POPS UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...THEN A COUPLE DRY AND
PLEASANT DAYS ARE IN STORE AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDS
IN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS TUE AND WED
WITH LOW HUMIDITY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS LATE THU AND INTENSIFIES INTO FRIDAY AS
MSTR SURGES BACK INTO THE COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. ALL MODELS
SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL OCCUR AND HV RAISED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT. DEEPEST MSTR EXITS ON SATURDAY BUT
ENOUGH MSTR WILL HANG AROUND TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN FACT THE GENERAL PATTERN....NW FLOW ALOFT AND/OR BROAD
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LVL RIDGE...WILL SUPPORT STORM CHANCES THRU
THE EXTENDED AND BEYOND
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
215 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151915-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
215 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES MAY OCCUR WHERE SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
453 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

TNZ027-028-059-062-142245-
DAVIDSON-RUTHERFORD-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
453 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAVIDSON...RUTHERFORD...
WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NASHVILLE TO
BRENTWOOD TO SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE THOMPSONS STATION...BELLS BEND...
BELLEVUE...BEAMAN PARK...FOREST HILLS...BELLE MEADE...FRANKLIN...
BRENTWOOD...OAK HILL...WHITES CREEK...BERRY HILL AND NASHVILLE.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3631 8636 3631 8630 3635 8629 3630 8626
      3635 8623 3632 8617 3606 8607 3574 8628
      3570 8677 3578 8700 3596 8689 3621 8699
      3630 8694 3633 8670 3624 8660 3632 8655
      3628 8652 3634 8644 3631 8640 3636 8637

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW BRENTWOOD         35.97N  86.80W
07/14/2014                   WILLIAMSON         TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            18 INCH TREE DOWN AT WICKLE ROAD AND FRANKLIN ROAD IN
            BRENTWOOD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1400464

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
513 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

TNZ009-029-030-142245-
MACON-SMITH-TROUSDALE-
513 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SMITH AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 509 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN AND AROUND HARTSVILLE...LAFAYETTE...PLEASANT SHADE AND RED
BOILING SPRING SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3663 8586 3663 8584 3662 8583 3638 8586
      3636 8616 3653 8620 3663 8587

13

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>