Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
156 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STEPPED OUTSIDE AND NOTICED WE STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF ALTOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD INDICATIVE OF WARM ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL. TEMPS ARE
WARMING AT 700 MBARS WITH +8 CELSIUS ALONG THE PLATEAU TO A +10
CELSIUS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EVEN WARMER 700 TEMPS BACK
IN OKLAHOMA THAT ARE GETTING ADVECTED EASTWARD TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT
STILL NOT ENOUGH TO CAP US OFF. SURFACE FRONT DRAPED DOWN THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THEN DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THEN INTO
OKLAHOMA. FRONT IS SLOWING ON SOUTH END WITH 35 KNOT WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET BOOTHEEL INTO WEST TENNESSEE. STILL A LOT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION TO OVERCOME AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE A WHILE. STILL BEST
SURFACE BASED LI'S IN EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE ALONG
WITH 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS BEING TRANSPORTED IN THIS
DIRECTION. ALL IN ALL THINK IT WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE WE
SEE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF FRONT AND IT MAY BE EVEN AFTER 23Z THIS
EVENING. BEST AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE BOOTHEEL AND ALONG
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. AM BEGINNING TO SEE SOME NEWLY
DEVELOPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ALABAMA BORDER
WORKING EASTWARD. THIS IN AN AREA OF HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPES AND
LI'S DOWN AROUND -6. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SURFACE FRONT WILL BISECT MID STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER POPS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF MID
STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. I KEPT A SMALL POP IN FOR SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FRONT NEARBY.
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AS WE
GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN EATING INTO
UPPER RIDGE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE I KEPT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DRY THEN INTRODUCED A SMALL POP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
INCREASED POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      70  87  66  88 /  70  40  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    67  87  62  88 /  60  20  10  05
CROSSVILLE     68  80  62  83 /  60  60  30  20
COLUMBIA       70  86  64  87 /  70  60  20  05
LAWRENCEBURG   71  86  65  89 /  70  70  30  05
WAVERLY        69  87  64  88 /  60  30  10  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

BOYD
01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR AREAS AROUND INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF I-65 AFTER 5 PM AND
LASTING THROUGH 8 PM. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
WILL CREATE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FROM 8 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE CLOSER TO THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

AL

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