Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Nashville, TN

816 
WWUS54 KOHX 050521
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

TNC085-050545-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-140605T0545Z/
HUMPHREYS TN-
1221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR HUMPHREYS COUNTY...

AT 1218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MCEWEN TO HURRICANE MILLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8799 3613 8792 3624 8775 3616 8756
      3601 8755 3597 8753 3591 8770 3584 8772
      3584 8782 3580 8785 3586 8795 3593 8793
      3593 8799 3596 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 307DEG 44KT 3608 8765 3595 8770
          3587 8786

$$

27

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1105 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

.UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THIS EVENING...THIS WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKED
RATHER IFFY IN TERMS OF SEVERE. STORMS ARE NOW WEAKENING IN INTENSITY.
THE COVERAGE IS NOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
BUT...ISOLATED AREAS OF 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED. WILL STILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BUT HELICITY VALUES LOOK TO BE DECREASING
SLOWLY. OTW...ILL ADJUST THE WEATHER GRIDS AND LOWER SOUTHERN
AREAS TO A CHANCE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SHORT DURATION HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION STILL EXISTS BUT NO
REAL FLOOD THREAT IS INDICATED. LIKELY POPS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR
THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD. CATEGORICAL POPS FAR NORTH PRIOR TO
THAT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

UPDATE...
HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE MASSING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KY. 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. JUST POPULATED WITH
THE LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE AND IT DOES INDEED JACK UP OUR QPF
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...FFG LOOKS SAFE AT THIS POINT AND A
WIDESPREAD FLOOD EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
THREAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT SO I
WILL INCLUDE THAT AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES. 2 SEVERE CELLS ARE NOTED ON
RADAR. ONE IS SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN AND THE OTHER NORTH OF
HOPKINSVILLE. BOTH OF THESE WILL TRANSLATE EAST SOUTHEAST AND THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES BETWEEN 9 PM
AND 11 PM. LAPS HELICITY VALUES DO INCREASE SOME AS WE MOVE TOWARD
OUR PLATEAU.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
LOOKING FOR OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING MCS TO IMPACT TAF SITES 05/02Z-05/05Z CKV...05/03Z-05/06Z
BNA...TO 05/05Z-05/08Z...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 40KTS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS BEST WINDOW OF
TSTMS TOO. EXPECT DEVELOPING MCS TO PASS S OF THESE AREAS AFTER
05/05Z E - 05/08Z W WITH VCSH POSSIBLE. WITH SFC BOUNDARY NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MID STATE UNTIL 18Z ON THU...WILL ADDRESS
CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF TSTMS THRU 05/24Z WITH VCTS REMARKS.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...FINAL THOUGHTS
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT LOUIS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM
OKLAHOMA EASTWARD INTO TENNESSEE BEGINNING TO RELAX A BIT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 20Z. 35-40 KNOT 850 MBAR JET PUNCHING UP ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER WITH A NORTHWESTERLY 500 MBAR JET INTERSECTING. ALL
THIS IN AREA OF TORNADO WATCHES. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
WILL ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. ONCE THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS EVENING IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL POSSIBLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID
STATE THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION. ARRIVAL
TIMES IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL ON TRACK.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-051000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
542 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HOWEVER...HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH...PONDING OF WATERS ON ROADWAYS TO ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WHILE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE MID-
STATE AREA WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HOWEVER...HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNZ009-010-050245-
CLAY-MACON-
915 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY AND MACON COUNTIES...

AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TOMPKINSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BOLES...MOSS AND CELINA.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3663 8584 3662 8544 3661 8541 3648 8558
      3663 8607 3664 8605

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNZ008-050330-
SUMNER-
1005 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMNER COUNTY...

AT 1005 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE MITCHELLVILLE...PORTLAND...OAK
GROVE AND WESTMORELAND.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH.....BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3665 8635 3665 8621 3664 8621 3650 8623
      3656 8660 3661 8659 3665 8655 3666 8651
      3666 8635

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1032 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNZ008-009-029-050400-
MACON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
1032 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SUMNER AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 1031 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WESTMORELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE OAK GROVE...BETHPAGE...
WESTMORELAND AND LAFAYETTE.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3664 8622 3662 8579 3638 8620 3657 8660
      3665 8654 3666 8651 3666 8644

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1055 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

TNZ009-029-030-050430-
MACON-SMITH-TROUSDALE-
1055 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...SMITH AND TROUSDALE
COUNTIES...

AT 1055 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HARTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE HARTSVILLE...DIXON SPRINGS...
PLEASANT SHADE...SOUTH CARTHAGE AND CARTHAGE.

SMALL HAIL...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3634 8584 3620 8597 3629 8614 3633 8617
      3632 8619 3635 8621 3634 8622 3637 8628
      3644 8627 3645 8626 3646 8624 3649 8624
      3650 8621

31