Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A DECENT COLD FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT THAT IS
APPROACHING MIDDLE TN AT ISSUANCE. SHOWERS AND TS WILL TRAVERSE
THE MID-STATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE TIMED OUT THE TS
FOR EACH TERMINAL AS BEST AS POSSIBLE. SOME TWEAKS MAY BE
NECESSARY...INCLUDING AMD FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS IF THE
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT IS OVER W TN.

AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK AND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID-
STATE...CURRENT STORMS SHOULD BE NEAR/ON THE PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL COVER WITH VCTS FOR NOW.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SOLID NW BREEZE SHOULD BE UPON US BY THIS TIME FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED E OF MIDDLE TN.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS CURRENTLY IN GOOD SHAPE SO THERE WON'T BE ANY GREAT
CHANGE THERE OTHER THAN A QUICK TWEAK TO THE TIMING OF THE LINE
ARRIVING IN ANY GIVEN AREA IN MIDDLE TN. THIS GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOMEPAGE IF YOU'RE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE LATEST THOUGHTS
ON THAT.

RUC SOUNDING ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE MS RIVER WILL HAVE
THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF TO AT LEAST THE I-65
CORRIDOR AND MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD DERAIL THIS FROM HAPPENING ARE THE STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MS. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THESE
STORMS WILL PUSH NEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME POLLUTED ENOUGH TO GREATLY
WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT CROSSES OVER THE TN RIVER.

BARRING WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THE
CONCERN FOR A TOR WATCH...THE MAIN THREAT STILL LOOKS LIKE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VEER JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH IS HELPING TO FLATTEN
OUT THE HODOGRAPHS. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THE TOR THREAT WILL BE
ZERO...BUT ONCE SURFACE WINDS VEER TO >180 DEGREES...THE TOR
THREAT DIMINISHES GREATLY. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WORDING FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS STILL LAGGING WELL BEHIND THIS LINE AND ISN'T
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MID-STATE UNTIL LATE MORNING TO MID-
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. FORTUNATELY IT
LOOKS LIKE ENVIRONMENTAL RECOVERY WILL BE WEAK...SO WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO SKATE THROUGH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE ON THAT WITH THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE
LATER TONIGHT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1010 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-040315-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1010 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF I-65. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. THE MAIN THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN. ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY OCCUR...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LOCALLY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EVEN THOUGH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
ISOLATED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO CALL IN ANYTHING REACHING REPORTING
CRITERIA.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
115 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

TNZ024-056>058-060-061-093>095-030700-
GILES-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MARSHALL-MAURY-PERRY-WAYNE-
115 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILES...HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS...
LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MARSHALL...MAURY...PERRY AND WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 115 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAYNESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE WAYNESBORO...HOHENWALD...
KIMMINS...GORDONSBURG...HAMPSHIRE...WILLIAMSPORT...PRIMM SPRINGS AND
SANTA FE.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3501 8799 3529 8799 3530 8801 3539 8802
      3541 8798 3542 8801 3582 8785 3585 8772
      3591 8771 3599 8753 3595 8720 3585 8721
      3571 8680 3499 8684

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
127 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

TNZ006-007-025>027-059-030730-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-WILLIAMSON-
127 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
MONTGOMERY...ROBERTSON AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...

AT 126 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OAK GROVE TO
BURNS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE WOODLAWN...PALMYRA...SLAYDEN...
VANLEER...CUNNINGHAM...DICKSON...CHARLOTTE...CLARKSVILLE...BURNS...
CHEATHAM DAM...WHITE BLUFF...FAIRVIEW...ASHLAND CITY...SPRINGFIELD...
FRANKLIN...AND NASHVILLE.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3664 8656 3641 8669 3641 8675 3610 8652
      3606 8652 3606 8653 3607 8653 3601 8661
      3579 8661 3575 8670 3571 8669 3570 8677
      3585 8722 3596 8721 3600 8754 3617 8757
      3633 8751 3634 8759 3664 8764

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
149 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     WHITE BLUFF             36.11N  87.21W
10/03/2014  M52 MPH          DICKSON            TN   FACEBOOK

            A SPOTTER MEASURED A 52 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1400584

SH

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