Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Nashville, TN

728 
WWUS54 KOHX 082204
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

TNC031-061-082215-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-140808T2215Z/
COFFEE TN-GRUNDY TN-
504 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR GRUNDY AND SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTIES...

AT 458 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PELHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TRACY CITY...GRUETLI-LAAGER...COALMONT AND ALTAMONT.

LAT...LON 3523 8581 3522 8588 3528 8592 3531 8598
      3532 8600 3547 8571 3531 8558 3530 8566
      3528 8570 3524 8569 3521 8573 3521 8578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 235DEG 14KT 3531 8581

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...OVERALL WX PATTERN TONIGHT THRU THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...RAINFALL CHANCES/RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TEMPS.

PREFERENCE AND AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST WPC MODEL DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION REASONING WITH A GENERAL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST EURO
SOLUTION THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

A TRICKY FORECAST ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT IN THE SENSE THAT SEVERAL
MESOSCALE FACTORS...INCLUDING LOCAL EFFECTS...COME INTO PLAY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES
A MEANDERING WEAK SUMMERTIME SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...DIFFERENTIAL DIURNAL
HEATING ASPECTS PER CLOUD COVERAGE BREAKS...AND SHORTWAVE PASSAGES
IN DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.

AS FOR TONIGHT...MAY BREAK OUT A LATE AFTERNOON GROUPING TO DEAL
WITH CURRENT RADAR AND SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS TIMING OVER THE
LATER AFTERNOON HRS...OTHERWISE CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE MODELS
GENERALLY SHOWING CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID
STATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW...MOVING EWD AND DISSIPATING AS THE
EVENING HRS PROGRESS AS DIURNAL INFLUENCES BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NWLY FLOW CHARACTERISTICS WITH AT LEAST
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN FLOW APPROACHING THE MID STATE AREA BY 12Z SAT.
BELIEVE THAT IN AREAS OVERNIGHT WHERE SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE NOT
OCCURRING...AND CUT BACK POPS TO AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO...PATCHY FOG
FORMATION COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME BREAKS IN SKIES ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT PER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL. LEANED THE
COOLER EURO/GFS VALUES ON LOWS TONIGHT PER CLOUD COVERAGE BREAKAGE
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION WHERE MOST SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

LOOK FOR SLOW MOVING MEANDERING FRONT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES ON SAT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN UPPER FLOW
EXPECTED...PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES...PROVIDING FOR
NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS BY THE AFTERNOON HRS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID 80S. THRU SAT AFTERNOON...GENERALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE MID
STATE...ESPECIALLY UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. WITH THE FEW STRONG
TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE WHERE OVERALL DYNAMICS WILL BE MOST ENHANCED...SOME PONDING OF
WATER POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS OF THIS TIME WITH HRLY FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES STILL GENERALLY AROUND TWO INCHES.

AS REFERENCED ABOVE...THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST TUE
NIGHT WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC FRONT SYSTEM WILL PUSH THRU PER
MIDWEST HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES BUILDING INTO THE MID STATE WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE
NORMAL TEMPS MID WEEK...WARMING UP TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      72  87  72  90 /  50  70  40  40
CLARKSVILLE    70  85  69  90 /  50  70  30  30
CROSSVILLE     69  81  68  84 /  70  70  50  50
COLUMBIA       72  88  72  91 /  40  70  40  40
LAWRENCEBURG   71  87  70  91 /  40  70  50  40
WAVERLY        72  86  70  91 /  40  70  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
524 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-091030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
524 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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