River Flood Advisory 40, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
848 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER NW AR THIS MORNING AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE. DEEP MOISTURE FETCH IS EVIDENT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW AND EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA NE
TOWARD SW MIDDLE TN. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE CURRENT
TRAJECTORY OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR SW...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE MID STATE TODAY.

WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTHWARD...SO FAR THERE ARE NO WATCH
BOXES TO OUR SOUTH. BUT...GFS ELUDES TOWARD
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
RAINFALL WONT ARRIVE UNTIL A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING. 850 MB
SPEEDS WILL RUN AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS BUT LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER
LOW. THEREFORE...MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS STILL IN LINE ACROSS ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD. 3 HOUR GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THAT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AREAS COULD SEE CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS THAT REACH OR
SURPASS THAT LEVEL. THEREFORE...FLOODING IS STILL A MAJOR CONCERN TODAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS INDICATE LOW TO MID 70S
TEMPS AT 18Z. SINCE HIGH TEMPS ARE JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT
LEVELS...THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HRRR SHOWS RAINFALL
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SO TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO THE TEMPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/

UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

MCS THAT IMPACTED THE AREA YESTERDAY EVENING HAS EXITED THE MID
STATE...BUT NEXT MCS MOVING NE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI WILL AFFECT AREA
AIRPORTS DURING THE DAY TODAY. CURRENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
BRINGS SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CKV/BNA AROUND
15-16Z...WITH HRRR INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE LATER TOWARDS 22Z AT CSV WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE
A CONCERN WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
.FLASH FLOOD POTENTAL REMAINS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND SOUTHWEST MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...

.POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IN THE MID STATE...

STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM LOUISIANA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS MORNING AND DURING THE DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR
2 INCHES IN A VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
JUICED TO THE HILT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN THE WATCH AREA AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY WILL BE MAXED OUT. AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND RELATIVELY COOL 500 MBAR
TEMPS ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DESPITE LIMITED HEATING TODAY DUE
TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. I EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS RETURN TO
SOUTHWESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE 12Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TO WORK UP THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS STORMS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. LOOKS TO ME LIKE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WILL THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS HERE IN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BUT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE RETARDED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.

ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ND INTO GREAT LAKES REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK DOWN
THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS SO LOOK FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES DOMINATE
THE PATTERN WITH A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF SHORT WAVES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ023>025-
056>058-060-061-093>095.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
525 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TNZ005>011-026>034-059-062>066-075-077>080-111030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-CHEATHAM-
DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-
WILLIAMSON-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
525 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...NO WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ023>025-056>058-060-061-093>095-111030-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-MAURY-MARSHALL-
WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
525 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS SEEN 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN JUNE...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL FALLING ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...NO WIDESPREAD STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT WIND DAMAGE...HAIL...OR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TNZ024-056-101530-
HUMPHREYS-PERRY-
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HUMPHREYS AND PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 956 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEW JOHNSONVILLE TO
10 MILES NORTH OF LINDEN TO LINDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE NEW JOHNSONVILLE...LOBELVILLE...
HURRICANE MILLS...WAVERLY AND MCEWEN.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3598 8803 3624 8788 3624 8775 3620 8766
      3620 8759 3617 8757 3602 8755 3598 8753
      3595 8756 3595 8760 3590 8771 3578 8772
      3546 8796 3571 8793 3578 8799 3593 8793
      3594 8801

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