River Flood Advisory 12, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
527 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. CIGS WILL
VARY IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING...THEN RISE TO CONSISTENT MVFR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT
TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...PATCHY LIGHT FREEZE DRIZZLE AND BLACK ICE
FORMATION NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID
MORNING HRS...WX PATTERN THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.

WENT AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WSW FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
ACROSS NW COUNTIES AS SELECTED COUNTY OFFICIALS IN THESE COUNTIES
REPORTED LITTLE IF ANY PCPN OCCURRING. BELIEVE THAT THERE IS STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS...AND
ALONG WITH MOISTURE ON THE ROADS POSSIBLY FREEZING...ISSUED AN SPS
CONCERNING THESE POSSIBILITIES THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. OTHERWISE...
MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU THE MID MORNING
HRS...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HRS EXPECT PLATEAU COUNTIES. EXPECT FLURRY ACTIVITY TO END BY THE
AFTERNOON HRS EXPECT PLATEAU WHERE SOME FLURRIES ALONG WITH PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
FALL FROM CURRENT READING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW TO MID 30S
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
CLOUDINESS.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY WITH CANADIAN BASED
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES PROVIDING AGAIN ANOTHER ROAD OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPS...AND UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW SUPPORTING THE CONTINUED
CLOUDINESS. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH
LOWS FRI MORNING EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE TEENS.

EURO THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT ALL
AT LEAST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT...SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...AND AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO TUE...AS ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE MID STATE'S WX INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE PROVIDED BY PASSING SYSTEMS. AS FOR TEMPS...WENT
CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION HERE ALSO.

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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-061100-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
500 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOBELVILLE...TO
DICKSON...TO PLEASANT VIEW...TO PORTLAND LINE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. MOTORIST ARE
ADVISED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THESE AREA ROADWAYS THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A WINTRY MIX...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH EXACT
TIMING...LOCATION DEVELOPMENT...AND AMOUNTS STILL NEEDING TO BE
DETERMINED...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU CHECK BACK THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT ANY ICE AND/OR SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
348 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

TNZ005>008-022>026-056-057-051500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
DICKSON-CHEATHAM-PERRY-HICKMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...
LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE
348 AM CST WED FEB 5 2014

...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLICK ROADS LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
ALONG WITH SLICK ROADS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LOBELVILLE...TO DICKSON...TO
PLEASANT VIEW...TO PORTLAND LINE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING AROUND FREEZING...SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ICING. SOME OF THIS ICING MAY FORM AS A THIN COATING OF GLAZED
ICE KNOWN AS BLACK ICE...WHICH IS VIRTUALLY TRANSPARENT...AND
OCCURS WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
RESULT IN SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS
ALSO...AIDING IN SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION
DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS ICE THAT FORMS WILL CAUSE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.

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