Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Nashville, TN

Bedford County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Davidson County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Giles County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Overton County, TN, Perry County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Smith County, TN, Stewart County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, White County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
744 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.UPDATE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN INITIAL FFA (STARTING AT 13Z)
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA, EFFECTIVE UNTIL 04Z THIS EVENING, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT WE MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT
INTO TUESDAY (WHEN GROUNDS WILL BE MOST SATURATED AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MAXIMUM RUN OFF). BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH
APPROACHING BAND OF STORMS OVER WESTERN TN, MAY PROVIDE IMPETUS
FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH EXPECTED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BELIEVE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL DEPEND PARTLY ON
WHETHER SURFACE DEW POINT BOUNDARY (THAT HAS NOW SUNK AS FAR SOUTH
AS NASHVILLE) BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH.
WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THAT FEATURE DEVELOPS AS THE
DAY WEARS ON.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291015-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
507 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...WHERE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LONG TRACK
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY OVER MOST OF
THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE AREA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A THREAT.
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT
THIS ACTIVE PERIOD. A FULL MTEARS AMATEUR RADIO ACTIVATION IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
538 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ009-010-281100-
CLAY-MACON-
538 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY AND MACON COUNTIES...

AT 533 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAFAYETTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE RED BOILING SPRINGS.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3663 8595 3662 8563 3644 8591 3658 8606
      3664 8597

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
542 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ007-008-024>027-057-281115-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-DICKSON-HICKMAN-HUMPHREYS-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
542 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...DICKSON...
HICKMAN...HUMPHREYS...ROBERTSON AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 538 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRINGFIELD TO
DICKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE CHEATHAM DAM...CHARLOTTE...
DICKSON...BURNS...PLEASANT VIEW...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE BLUFF...ASHLAND
CITY...ORLINDA...CROSS PLAINS...GREENBRIER AND BEAMAN PARK.

HALF INCH SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3623 8680 3584 8780 3665 8684 3666 8659
      3664 8657 3666 8651 3665 8636

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
608 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ008-009-026>029-059-281200-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-MACON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
608 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...MACON...
SUMNER...TROUSDALE...WILLIAMSON AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 608 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PORTLAND TO
GOODLETTSVILLE TO KINGSTON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE BELLS BEND...WHITES CREEK...
PORTLAND...PEGRAM...MILLERSVILLE...KINGSTON SPRINGS...
GOODLETTSVILLE...COTTONTOWN...MADISON...OAK GROVE...BELLEVUE AND
HENDERSONVILLE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3662 8583 3643 8597 3609 8650 3610 8651
      3607 8652 3609 8654 3606 8657 3602 8719
      3605 8718 3631 8677 3666 8651

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
702 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ008-028-281245-
SUMNER-WILSON-
702 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMNER AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 658 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE HENDERSONVILLE...MOUNT JULIET...
LEBANON...DICKERSON CHAPEL RECREATION AREA AND TUCKERS CROSSROADS.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3630 8627 3630 8625 3633 8625 3635 8623
      3629 8614 3623 8612 3621 8609 3610 8606
      3622 8659 3624 8660 3626 8664 3631 8664
      3637 8662 3638 8628

27

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
753 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

TNZ009-010-031-281330-
CLAY-JACKSON-MACON-
753 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY...JACKSON AND MACON
COUNTIES...

AT 751 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RED BOILING SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH INCLUDE RED BOILING SPRINGS...MOSS...
CELINA AND DALE HOLLOW LAKE.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3654 8530 3642 8590 3661 8592 3663 8585
      3662 8549 3663 8531

13