Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...TO FURTHER ADDRESS RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPDATED THEIR QPF PRODUCTS GIVING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE SOME PRETTY HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO TOTAL AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG AND
30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF AN AXIS FROM WAYNESBORO TO NASHVILLE TO GALLATIN
THROUGH NOON SUNDAY WITH UPWARDS OF 2.5 INCHES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE PLATEAU WHERE 0.75 INCH IS FORECAST TO
FALL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE BASED ON BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WHICH WILL BE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE
WILL CAUSE CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE ALONG WITH THE USUAL PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE STILL
PRETTY HIGH SO WE CAN HANDLE A LITTLE WATER. THE PROBLEM COULD
COME IF WE GET TRAINING OF ECHOES (THUNDERSTORMS) ACROSS THE SAME
AREA. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL PASS ALONG TO EVENING CREW TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION AS
NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES ALONG WITH GUIDANCE FROM ABOVE.

BOYD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 157 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH HOLDS FAST TO OUR
NORTHWEST PROVIDING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOTAL LING 1 TO 1.5
INCHES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MID STATE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL HELD DOWN ON
SUNDAY BY CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S BEGINNING ON
LABOR DAY AS RAIN CHANCES BACK OFF TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA SHUTTING OFF MOIST PLUME
FROM GULF REGION. BY WEDNESDAY UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO
OUR NORTH WITH WESTERLIES HAVING MOVED TO A HIGHER LATITUDE ALLOWING
UPPER RIDGE TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. HIGHS IN THE 90S
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

BOYD
01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
501 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-312215-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
501 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THIS EVENING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ENOUGH TO REDUCE DRIVING VISIBILITIES AND RESULT IN
LOCALIZED PONDING ON ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE CONTINUED RAIN ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN
SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE
MOST RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MAY REACH UP
TO 2.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TB12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
422 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TNZ061>063-075-302200-
BEDFORD-CANNON-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-
422 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEDFORD...CANNON...MARSHALL AND
RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 5 PM CDT...

AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA...PRODUCING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SOME SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
PASS OVER...WITH HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINS
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BY 5 PM.

LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE BETWEEN
CHAPEL HILL...ROCKVALE...CHRISTIANA...BEECHGROVE AND SHELBYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3544 8671 3558 8681 3600 8643 3593 8611
      3570 8622 3569 8625 3566 8624 3541 8636

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TNZ060-061-302315-
MARSHALL-MAURY-
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARSHALL AND MAURY COUNTIES...

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...TRAINING UP ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF MAURY COUNTY AND WESTERN PARTS OF MARSHALL COUNTY. SOME
SPOTS WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING
AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINS
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH APPROPRIATE CAUTION.

MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING THESE HEAVY RAINS IS NEAR THE INTERSTATE
65 CORRIDOR.

LAT...LON 3547 8704 3575 8689 3574 8686 3572 8684
      3572 8682 3570 8677 3571 8677 3571 8673
      3569 8666 3543 8684

19