Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FIRST STAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENT HAS BEGUN.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA...WITH UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND UPSTREAM
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  UP TO 90KT JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM UT
THROUGH NEB/SD INTO IA/MN  700MB TEMPS HAD INCREASED TO 10-12C IN
SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS...WITH STRONGER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM
THERE WESTWARD.  AT 850MB...16C+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM THE TX BIG
BEND THROUGH WESTERN KS...TRANSPORTED BY A 35-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO/NEB PANHANDLE...WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM AROUND KLBF TO JUST NORTH OF KHSI TO JUST
SOUTH OF KLNK TO JUST NORTH OF KFNB AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.  ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NEB REMAINS IN A
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT...PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND EXPECT IT WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IA.  RISK FOR
HIGH-END WIND DAMAGE EXISTS WITH THIS SEGMENT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...CU FIELD IS
BUBBLING SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TOWERS
TRYING TO GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.  ONCE ACTIVITY SUCCESSFULLY
INITIATES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB...ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
HAIL/WIND THREATS AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL...GIVEN INCREASING 0-
1KM SHEAR/EFFECTIVE SRH AND AMPLE MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.  STILL DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS/BOW
ECHO/DERECHO COMPLEX AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SUPPORTING UPSCALE GROWTH.  COMPLEX MOST LIKELY WOULD
FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN
IA...PROGRESSING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LATER EVENING.
LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXTENDS ACROSS THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN
METROS AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN EASTERN NEB...AND HAVE ADDED A
CORRIDOR TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
IOWA.

HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIP MENTION IN FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK EVENT MAINLY WILL BE DONE AND PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-3AM...WITH JUST SMALL POTENTIAL FOR POST-
MAIN-EVENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.  OTHERWISE...STABILIZING
AND COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS KS/MO..PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.  IT DOES
APPEAR THAT BOTH AREAS WILL MISS THE CWA...AND HAVE REMOVED PRECIP
MENTION FROM THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN THE WESTERN CWA AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSE TO THE PROGGED
SURFACE LOW...AND FOLLOWED LATER BY THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.  DRIER...COOLER...AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THEN
ENCROACHES ON THE CWA FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.  MODELS DO INDICATE PRECIP
RETURNING AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO NERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT
MOVEMENT BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE FARTHER SE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TOWARD 00Z NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT SHOULD SET UP NEAR LINCOLN BY
THAT TIME. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VSBYS TO BELOW 1 MILE IN
HEAVY RAIN. WITH REPEAT CELL MOVEMENT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE
A PROLONGED TSTM THREAT INTO THIS EVENING...AND THIS WAS
MAINTAINED AT KOMA AND KLNK FROM PRIOR FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NEZ044-045-051>053-066-067.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
412 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 400 PM WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR LINCOLN TOWARD FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WHILE THERE ARE OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS OVER ALL OF THE REGION SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

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