Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAD MOVED
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. THIS BROUGHT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BUT IT HAS SINCE FIZZLED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO STILL BE A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. NEAR
TERM MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVENING FORECAST SO
CONFIDENCE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS FAIRLY LOW. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MAY
DRIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING SOME TSTMS INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA.
AN ELONGATED PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
COULD PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTH. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THURSDAY
LOOKS DRY WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW IS OVER LOUISIANA THURSDAY
NIGHT...IT IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST INTO TEXAS.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER OUR AREA...WHILE
UPPER FLOW BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
NOT EXPECTED...THERE DOES REMAIN A CHANCE EVERY SINGLE DAY OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

OVERALL...HIGHS WILL ALL BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

RADAR MOSAIC CURRENTLY SHOWING ISOLD TS CELLS POPPING UP OVER ERN
NEB WITHIN AREA OF MODERATE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE THOUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE STABLE. OTHERWISE VFR COND WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST
PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-281130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

IAZ069-079-NEZ053-067-280045-
MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-CASS NE-SARPY NE-
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 659 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BELLEVUE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...PAPILLION...PLATTSMOUTH...
GLENWOOD...PACIFIC JUNCTION...MURRAY AND OFFUTT AFB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN OMAHA.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 9604 4120 9583 4096 9566 4089 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 338DEG 18KT 4115 9590

DEE

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