Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
TRIGGERED A COUPLE AREAS OF SHOWERS TODAY. THE FIRST AREA HAS
BEEN ALONG AND JUST NORTH/EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT HAS
MOSTLY BEEN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TIED TO THE UPPER
WAVE WAS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TO DEVELOP IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THUS...WILL STILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FOR VERY SPOTTY HIT/MISS
ACTIVITY... WHICH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
END BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE NOW CROSSING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND AT LEAST
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY
WILL MAKE IT...BUT LATER FORECASTS CAN ADJUST AS NECESSARY.

AND FINALLY...ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY SPOTTY LIGHT THUNDERSHOWERS POSSIBLE.

NONE OF THE THREE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO
THE REGION UNFORTUNATELY.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMUP...MID TO
EVENTUALLY UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY BE THE HOTTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
TO 40/50 PERCENT...THEN MOVING OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
426 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-011130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
426 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED TONIGHT BUT PLEASE
PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF HAIL OR STRONG WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FRIDAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
359 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NEZ042-312130-
PLATTE NE-
359 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PLATTE COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
DUNCAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNCAN.

LAT...LON 4141 9759 4139 9741 4138 9742 4137 9745
      4137 9750 4134 9756 4134 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 296DEG 13KT 4135 9754

KERN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
430 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

NEZ016-312200-
ANTELOPE NE-
430 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ANTELOPE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CLEARWATER...OR 27 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ONEILL...MOVING SOUTH AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NELIGH...ELGIN...CLEARWATER AND OAKDALE.

LAT...LON 4231 9830 4233 9802 4195 9792 4195 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 354DEG 15KT 4225 9819

MILLER

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