Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

LIGHT SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WERE MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
CLOUDS WERE HOLDING INSTABILITY IN CHECK...HOWEVER CLEARING SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED BEHIND THESE SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA. MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES WERE CLIMBING
ABOVE 1500 J/KG THERE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOTED FROM
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE CUMULUS FIELD WAS
BECOMING ENHANCED IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST
SUGGESTS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT HERE...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN EVENTUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THEY
APPROACH THE OMAHA METRO. FARTHER SOUTH...PREVIOUS INDICATIONS OF
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS RAKING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WANING. THE AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY AND
CURRENT STORM TRACK ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS SUGGESTS STORMS THERE WILL
TRACK INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND MISS OUR CWA.

MOST CONVECTION LOOKS TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A RELATIVELY
DRY PERIOD OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME WARM ADVECTION ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LATE TONIGHT AS 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO
THAT REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECASTS ARE WEAK...SO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.

THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PROVE A DIFFERENT STORY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY...AND LIE SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO A SIOUX CITY TO COLUMBUS LINE BY
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE LOWER 70S...YIELDING OVER 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL HAVE TO
BE OVERCOME EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THAT CAP IS ERODED
BY ABOUT 4 PM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LAYER IS
SUGGESTED BY GFS HEIGHT FIELDS...HELPING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON. LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
STORMS AS 40 TO 45KT OF WESTERLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALIGNS AT A STEEP
ANGLE TO FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS. THUS ALL MODES OF SEVERE APPEAR
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INITIALLY WHEN LOOPING HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST
PREVALENT. HAIL AND WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING AS COMPLEX DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER SURFACE LOW IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS IS FORECAST TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ENHANCING LIFT AS IT HEADS TOWARD OUR CWA. THUS WILL KEEP FAIRLY
HIGH POPS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A GOOD PART
OF OUR AREA BEFORE THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE PASS TO THE EAST.
LINGERING STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL BUT WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY AND A BIT COOLER.
MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY HUDSON BAY WILL DRIVE A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. PARTS OF OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST CWA MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THIS FEATURE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL HOLD CLOSER TO 80 TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACK SIDE
OF MID LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP FROM HUDSON BAY LOW THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED BOTH THOSE DAYS. UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TOWARD 90. SHORTWAVE
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY POP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
SOUTH AS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WILL INSERT SMALL POPS
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

EXCEPT IN TSRA VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MVFR VISBY AND GUSTY
WINDS...OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AT KOFK BUT OTHERWISE THE
KOMA/KLNK TAFS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. WE DO EXPECT SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SUN AND WILL INCLUDE SOME MENTION AT
KOMA/KLNK DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
MVFR CONDS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-
050>053-065-066-078-088>090-092-291245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MONTGOMERY-PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-
THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-
PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 4
AM...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
HAIL GREATER THAN QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL. FINALLY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
SUNDAY.

IAZ079-090-NEZ067-068-091-093-291245-
MILLS-FREMONT-CASS-OTOE-NEMAHA-RICHARDSON-
533 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER 4
AM...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED
HAIL GREATER THAN QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING BY EVENING.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE MISSOURI
RIVER...GENERALLY DOWNSTREAM OF PLATTSMOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY...LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL. FINALLY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

FLOODING WILL PERSIST ON THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM PLATTSMOUTH DOWNSTREAM
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY.

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