Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
242 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/CHANCES REMAIN PRIMARY CONCERN IN SHORT TERM
AS ACTIVE JUNE PATTERN GENERALLY PERSISTS INTO MONDAY.

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW PIVOTING
ACROSS SRN SASK CANADA WITH A LOBE EXTENDING SWD ALONG ND/MN
BORDER AT 19Z. THIS LOBE HAS SENT A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO NRN
NEBR...PRIMARILY A DEWPOINT FRONT WITH AROUND 70 DEG SFC DWPTS
FEEDING INTO IT ACROSS NWRN ZONES WITH UPPER 40S JUST TO OUR
NW. ALTHOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION DISPTD...CONTINUED UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS SPC MESO PAGE
SUGGESTED LITTLE/NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH 3.5K+ J/KG MLCAPE
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY ON LIGHTER
SIDE...AROUND OR BELOW 30KTS...AFTER INITIAL SVR DEVELOPMENT WITH
HEATING DRIVEN INSTABILITY RELEASE...FEEL BULK OF ACTIVITY COULD
TRANSITION MORE TOWARD A HEAVY RAIN ISSUE AS H85 JET REMAINS
FOCUSED INTO NERN ZONES. UPPED POPS AND QPF ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER
TO ECMWF QPF AS H85 JET ONLY MODEST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATER
TONIGHT APPEARED TO FOCUS SE OF WHERE BULK OF PRECIP MAY EXIST.

MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIP COULD LINGER SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MAINLY WRN IA ZONES...AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NERN
NEBR...BUT BULK OF AREA MUCH OF THE DAY COULD BE DRY. CONTINUED
THIS TREND FROM PRIOR FORECAST BUT RAISED MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
SW...AS AREA SHOULD RECOVER EARLIEST FROM ANY MORNING CLOUDS/ISOLD
TSTMS. LATER IN THE DAY THE FA REMAINS ON SOUTH SIDE OF FASTER
UPPER FLOW WITH FILLING SRN CANADA TROUGH PROVIDES AREA WITH SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER...LESS SFC CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG
A WEAKENED SFC BOUNDARY AND THUS DEVELOPMENT COULD WAIT UNTIL
ANOTHER LOBE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW SENDS A STRONGER BOUNDARY
INTO NWRN ZONES LATER SAT NIGHT.

THIS BOUNDARY THEN WEAKENS OR SLOWS AS IT PUSHES INTO FORECAST
SUNDAY...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCREASING HIGHS SERN ZONES.
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY SAGGING THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS ZONES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
EJECTS FROM ROCKIES...THUS MODESTLY HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED.
THESE HIGH POPS WERE ALSO MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY PERIOD SERN ZONES
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAST THIS ENERGY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
FA. COULD SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN LATER FORECASTS IF FASTER NAM
WOULD VERIFY. COOL ADVECTION/CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIP ALL INDICATE
COOLER TEMPS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

12Z GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST MONDAY NGT/TUESDAY MUCH OF
THE FA AS NW FLOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH.
HOWEVER...TRAILING ENERGY WILL HOLD UP BOUNDARY LATE TUE NIGHT AND
THEN BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIFT IT BACK NORTH. ALTHOUGH
THIS BUILDING RIDGE COULD EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN OR GREATLY REDUCE
PRECIP THREAT A PERIOD OR TWO...RETURNING BOUNDARY/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BRING A RENEWED THREAT IN TUE NGT THROUGH WED NIGHT PERIODS
AND NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOBES POTENTIALLY
EJECTING OUT PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. THUS SMALL POPS WILL
BLANKET EXTENDED AND WILL ALLOW LATER FORECASTS TO BETTER FINE-
TUNE PARTICULAR PERIODS AS DAYS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA HAS RAPIDLY COLLAPSED SINCE 17Z AND UNSURE OF ANY
SPECIFIC FORCING TO KEY ON THROUGH 00Z. HRRR INDICATES ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA IN LATEST
FORECAST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-051-065-066-078-088-
089-211230-
MONONA-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS THIS EVENING COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD SAG
SOUTH A LITTLE AIDED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO
LACK OF HEATING AND GENERALLY MODEST TO WEAK WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE PLAINS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS
EVENING.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ045-052-053-067-068-090>093-
211230-
HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-
WASHINGTON-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-
RICHARDSON-
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THOSE
LOCATIONS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH COULD SAG SOUTH A LITTLE THIS
EVENING AIDED BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING AND GENERALLY MODEST TO WEAK WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN COULD PERSIST.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO SATURDAY FROM
PLATTSMOUTH SOUTH THROUGH RULO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE PLAINS. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

FLOODING WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
PLATTSMOUTH SOUTH THROUGH RULO INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

CHERMOK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
449 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

IAZ043-NEZ015-034-202230-
MONONA IA-BURT NE-THURSTON NE-
449 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MONONA...NORTHERN BURT
AND SOUTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 449 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LYONS...OR 36 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ONAWA...LYONS...WHITING...DECATUR...TURIN...KENNEBEC AND LEWIS AND
CLARK STATE PARK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4221 9603 4201 9589 4186 9642 4197 9652
      4222 9611 4221 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 239DEG 23KT 4198 9637

KERN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
501 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NEZ030-031-042-202230-
MADISON NE-PLATTE NE-BOONE NE-
501 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON...EAST
CENTRAL BOONE AND NORTHERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ST. EDWARD...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWMAN GROVE...PLATTE CENTER...LINDSAY...HUMPHREY...TARNOV AND
CORNLEA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4191 9759 4159 9731 4148 9770 4152 9770
      4153 9780 4165 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 246DEG 35KT 4162 9776

KERN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
539 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NEZ011-012-017-202330-
CEDAR NE-PIERCE NE-KNOX NE-
539 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX...CEDAR AND
NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 539 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WAUSA...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YANKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARTINGTON...BLOOMFIELD...WAUSA...WYNOT...CROFTON...PLEASANT
VALLEY...FORDYCE...ST. HELENA...OBERT AND BROOKY BOTTOM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4281 9721 4280 9716 4277 9713 4277 9705
      4276 9702 4268 9701 4256 9703 4243 9761
      4262 9772 4265 9772 4285 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 244DEG 26KT 4253 9761

KERN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
608 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             8 SE WEST POINT         41.76N 96.60W
06/20/2014  M0.75 INCH       CUMING             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH 40 MPH WINDS.

&&

RCHERMOK

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