Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1224 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

MAIN CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE
FOR SUPERCELL STORMS...AT LEAST SOME DISCRETE STORMS THIS EVENING...
THEN THESE MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM 12Z SHOWED A 95 KNOT JET MAX CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST NEVADA. 500 MB TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH HEIGHT
FALLS STARTING TO SPREAD OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THERMAL RIDGE AT
700 MB STRETCHED FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MOISTURE AT 850 MB HAD RETURNED TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF MID AFTERNOON SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN INTO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NORTH OF HILL CITY KANSAS. A DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS LOW.
DEWPOINTS LOCALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WERE IN THE
60S.

TONIGHT...STILL LOOKS LIKE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING...AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING...WILL BE FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. BUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
COULD ALSO OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG OR WEST OF A LINE FROM
SCHUYLER TO BEATRICE.

SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDES MAINLY WIND AND HAIL BUT THERE WILL ALSO
BE A TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR ANY FRONTAL
OR MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EVEN WITH 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...FELT CHANCES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW AS
BETTER POTENTIAL STAYS TO THE WEST...BUT DID KEEP SOME CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS (OR EVEN INCREASE THEM SOONER) FOR MONDAY. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...STORM CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST TO OUR NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH
SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS PERIOD LOOKS ACTIVE AT TIMES...WITH A CONTINUED OFF AND ON
STORM THREAT. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THE 500 MB PATTERN
SHOULD FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OUR AREA WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO OUR AREA IN THAT FLOW.
THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY THURSDAY...THEN IT APPEARS A CLOSED LOW WILL FORM OVER
MINNESOTA IN THE TROUGH BY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM...IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S...THEN IT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AFTER THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

CONVECTIVE LINE IS IMMINENT AT KLNK WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AND MAYBE 08Z. CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
AT KOMA UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AT
KOFK...BUT THE COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED THERE WITH A SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS...AND
PERHAPS BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ012-
     015-017-018-031>034-042-043.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043.

&&

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
512 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

IAZ043-055-056-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065-078-
088-151215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-
BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-
BUTLER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-SALINE-JEFFERSON-
512 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OUTLOOK
AREA. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALSO...ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA FROM COLUMBUS AND NORFOLK
NORTHEAST INTO MONONA COUNTY IOWA. THE STORMS COULD CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA INTO THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IAZ069-079-080-090-091-NEZ052-053-066>068-089>093-151215-
POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
512 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND
PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING.  THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LATER IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL SHIFT TO
MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS A COMPLEX PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

CHERMOK

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