Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES OF INTERMITTENT TSTMS.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS THIS MORNING AS A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT WEAKENING A
BIT...BUT IT WILL LIKELY CLIP PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN CWA EARLY
TODAY AND SPREAD EAST. THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVES WILL BE IN OUR EXTREME EXTREME SOUTH. THE CONVECTION-
ALLOWING NEAR TERM MODEL DATA DOES SHOW SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
IN THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE MET THIS AFTERNOON...DO EXPECT TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP AND THEN DISSIPATE AT
SUNSET.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME SATURDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

TSTM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS FAIRLY LOW DUE WEAK SHEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
STILL SOMEWHAT IN DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING SO DID NOT GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY WITH MAKING BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

CLOUD COVER OVER ERN NEB STARTING TO SCATTER OUT A BIT...BUT
LATEST OBS STILL INDICATE MVFR/IFR CIGS SITUATED IN SERN NEB. IN
ADDITION...RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWING ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG SFC
BNDRY/MOISTURE CONVG ZONE EXTENDING FROM SERN SD INTO NERN NEB. IF
CLOUDS BREAK FURTHER...MAY SEE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTN MAINLY SOUTH I-80. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF
TSRA AT KOMA/KLNK. OTHERWISE...LOW LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
TO ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS MVFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPING EARLY FRI
MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH RETURNING BY LATE FRI
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-060615-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1104 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS THOUGH ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WHILE THE
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...SOME STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL.

OTHERWISE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL
BRING OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
226 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

IAZ043-NEZ015-052000-
MONONA IA-THURSTON NE-
226 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONONA AND
NORTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 226 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
EMERSON...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIOUX CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMERSON...WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO AND MACY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4227 9635 4226 9633 4223 9632 4222 9634
      4221 9630 4207 9639 4224 9675 4228 9673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 293DEG 18KT 4230 9662

DEE