Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

528 
WWUS83 KOAX 220004
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
704 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ065>068-078-088>093-220115-
/O.CAN.KOAX.FW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140322T0200Z/
MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
704 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS CANCELLED THE
RED FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RECOVERED TO AROUND 30 TO 35 PERCENT OR
GREATER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO
35 MPH WILL STILL PREVAIL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS CLEARING SKIES AND STRONG
MIXING HAVE PUSHED TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF IN THE
NORTHERN CWA...BUT SHOULD SEE A RISE INTO THE 60S YET THIS
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE. STRONG MIXING ALSO SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 20S...RESULTING IN RH AROUND 18-25 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AM ON THE FENCE ABOUT A RED FLAG
WARNING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH TINDER-DRY VEGETATION BUT
LIKELY JUST SHORT-LIVED RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT MAY RAISE THE
FLAG IN THE SOUTHERN COUPLE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. OTHERWISE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXISTS EVERYWHERE...ALONG
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AND RISK OF FIRES CERTAINLY IS PRESENT
TODAY WHETHER CONDITIONS TECHNICALLY MEET RED FLAG OR NOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS.

COLD FRONT WAS MARCHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...AND SHOULD CLEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS BY MID
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER DECENT MIXING DAY IS EXPECTED AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM NEAR 800MB WILL
REACH THE SURFACE...INDICATING WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S MOST SPOTS. DRYING OF LOW
LEVELS IS ALSO EXPECTED...PUSHING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSE TO
20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE RISK THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 3 TO 10
BELOW RANGE BY 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING. INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE BRINGING PRECIP TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL COMBINE WITH COOL AIRMASS TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RATHER CHILLY SATURDAY. ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 30S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S. THEN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED WEAK COLD ADVECTION
AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
CLIPPER SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE IS
CURRENTLY DRIFTING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ITS DIVE TOWARD THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER TIMING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. A BLEND OF GFS/NAM/ECMWF TIMING SUGGESTS WAVE
WILL BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES...
THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT SNOW OVERNIGHT. GFS
QPF LOOKS OVERDONE IN PAINTING A SWATH OF ALMOST A HALF INCH BETWEEN
06Z AND 18Z MONDAY...BUT A TENTH OR TWO OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT LOOKS
REASONABLE AS PER ECMWF/NAM. GARCIA CALCULATIONS AND COBB OUTPUT
SUGGEST A SWATH OF 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST BAND...MOSTLY LIKELY FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST
CENTRAL IOWA...BUT AGAIN TRACK AND TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE FINE-
TUNED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THE LONGER TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES WHERE IT DEEPENS BROADER
TROUGH THERE. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND EXITING WAVE AND 1030+ MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING OVERHEAD. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S. A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN 50KT LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE ELEVATED SHOWERS THEN...BUT BRUNT
OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. AS LOW MARCHES ACROSS THE
PLAINS THEN...EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT...WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW BEHIND AS SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK...AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CEILINGS AROUND 4KFT MAY BRUSH KOFK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET TO AROUND 10-14KT AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...WITH LITTLE
SKY COVER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY BELOW 15KFT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1042 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-220545-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1042 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST IOWA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAYES