Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
601 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH ACTIVITY
PROBABLY PUSHING EAST OF FAR NW ZONES EARLY DECIDED NOT INCLUDE
ANTELOPE AND BOONE COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

CONVECTION TODAY...LIKELY CENTERED ON THIS MORNING...IS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER EVENT IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. THEREFORE MUCH OF THE
FOCUS...OTHER THAN HANDLING SHORT TERM UPDATES/POSSIBLE
WARNINGS...WILL TURN TO ENDING TIME OF THREAT OF TSTMS THIS AFTN
FOLLOWED BY APPARENT SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY.

INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOBE DROPPING
THRU MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. POPS THROUGH 18Z WILL BE IN
FLUX WITH UPDATES AS NEEDED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS ALTHOUGH MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE CNTRL/N WILL BE IN HIGH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
RANGE. ALTHOUGH PREDAWN ACTIVITY COULD BE REGENERATIVE...WOULD
SUSPECT AS MT WAVE GETS CLOSER BY MID/LATE MORNING...THE RESULTANT
MCS SHOULD BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AT
18Z NEAR OR E OF MO RIVER. EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SERN NEBR WHERE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD FORM AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS EARLY/MID
AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERSISTING AND MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 2.5K J/KG...LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY MORNING ACTIVITY
WITH A WIND THREAT INCREASING AS CELLS CONGEAL AND STRONGER COLD
POOL DEVELOPS. BEFORE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE...
REGENERATION/TRAINING AND JUST HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ALONE WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
AMOUNTS. HEAVY RAIN WAS MENTIONED IN CNTRL/NRN ZONES THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM BASICALLY OMAHA METRO
THROUGH COLUMBUS AND POINTS NORTHWARD.

BELIEVE THE FA WILL BE DRY AFTER 00Z BUT LINGERED SMALL POPS
EXTREME SE CORNER FOR AN HR OR TWO FOR SMALL THREAT/CONTINUITY/BLENDING
PURPOSES. OF NOTE AND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED HOWEVER...WAS 4KM
WRF DEPICTION OF A SECONDARY BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTN AND SWINGING THRU SE FA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  NEXT PRECIP
CHANCE...AND IT IS LOOKING PRETTY SMALL...WOULD BE
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTN AS A REINFORCING LOBE SENDS
ANOTHER WINDSHIFT/FRONT THRU FA. KEPT IN SMALL POPS CNTRL/N BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HARD TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP THAT
PERSISTS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSES SOUTH OVER FA.

MADE ONLY MINOR OR NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
INCLUDED LOWERING READINGS A BIT OVR NERN ZONES TDA WHERE MCS
SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST WITH LESS RECOVERY TIME BUT BOOSTED
SERN NEBR CORNER TEMPS A DEG OR TWO AHEAD OF FRONT. ALSO RAISED
TEMPS A LITTLE SRN ZONES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE REINFORCING COOL
FRONT. 00Z GFS/NAM HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON COOLING FOR WED...OR
WERE A LITTLE QUICKER WITH AFTN H85 WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD
ALLOW WED TO WARM A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED YDA...HOWEVER...FOR NOW
LEFT MOST TEMPERATURES ALONE AS ECMWF WAS STILL A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH READINGS HEADING CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR EARLY JULY. ALTHOUGH GFS HAD BACKED OFF ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING OVER BUILDING RIDGE DOWN MO RIVER ON SATURDAY KEEPING IT
LESS INTENSE AND/OR FARTHER E...00Z ECMWF REMAINED PRECIP BULLISH.
ALTHOUGH THAT WAVE OR ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY PLUS AN EPISODE OR TWO OF
POSITIVE THETAE ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE POPS NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH
WERE MAINTAINED...SUSPECT MUCH OF NEBR ZONES COULD BE DRY DURING
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

ALTHOUGH TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE TO BEGIN TAF PERIOD...STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/MOVE TOWARD THE OMAHA/LINCOLN PERIODS
TOWARD MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD LINGER PAST 18Z...FELT
BEST RISK WAS BEFORE THAT TIME PERIOD. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
CONTAIN HAIL...POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE...BUT NO HAIL MENTION WAS
MADE IN TAF FORECASTS BECAUSE OF TIMING/COVERAGE ISSUES. OUTFLOW
FROM DEVELOPING TSTMS COULD ALSO CAUSE VARIABLE WINDS...EVEN WELL
SEPARATED FROM CONVECTION LATER THIS MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS TSTM COMPLEX DEPARTS LATER
TODAY...BUT WERE NOT MENTIONED WITH THIS INITIAL SET OF TAFS THAT
WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ015-018-
     032>034-043>045-051>053.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NEZ017-031-042.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043-055-
     056-069.

&&

UPDATE...CHERMOK
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...CHERMOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1011 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-010515-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
1011 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH 6 PM. AN ACTIVE DAY CONTINUES TO UNFOLD WITH THE
THREAT FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS INCLUDES A FEW
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

A FRONTAL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD WILL PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY COULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY MID
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BROWNVILLE
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ALSO...FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BROWNVILLE
DOWNSTREAM TO RULO WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL STORMS TODAY MAY KEEP RIVER LEVELS ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE BEYOND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1023 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW CARROLL            42.26N 97.22W
06/30/2014                   WAYNE              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF CARROLL.

&&

JBRAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1032 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WAYNE                   42.24N 97.02W
06/30/2014                   WAYNE              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

JBRAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1034 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TSTM WND GST     8 E WAYNE               42.24N 96.86W
06/30/2014  E65 MPH          WAYNE              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN WAKEFIELD.

&&

JBRAND

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