Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

FIRST STAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENT HAS BEGUN.  SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CWA...WITH UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO OH RIVER VALLEY...AND UPSTREAM
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  UP TO 90KT JET STREAK EXTENDED FROM UT
THROUGH NEB/SD INTO IA/MN  700MB TEMPS HAD INCREASED TO 10-12C IN
SOUTHWEST NEB/WESTERN KS...WITH STRONGER 700-500MB LAPSE RATES FROM
THERE WESTWARD.  AT 850MB...16C+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM THE TX BIG
BEND THROUGH WESTERN KS...TRANSPORTED BY A 35-45KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NORTHEAST CO/NEB PANHANDLE...WITH
WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM AROUND KLBF TO JUST NORTH OF KHSI TO JUST
SOUTH OF KLNK TO JUST NORTH OF KFNB AND CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.  ONGOING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST NEB REMAINS IN A
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT...PRODUCING BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...AND EXPECT IT WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL IA.  RISK FOR
HIGH-END WIND DAMAGE EXISTS WITH THIS SEGMENT...ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  MEANWHILE...CU FIELD IS
BUBBLING SOUTH OF AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH ISOLATED TOWERS
TRYING TO GET THEIR ACTS TOGETHER.  ONCE ACTIVITY SUCCESSFULLY
INITIATES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST NEB...ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
HAIL/WIND THREATS AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL...GIVEN INCREASING 0-
1KM SHEAR/EFFECTIVE SRH AND AMPLE MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.  STILL DO EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS/BOW
ECHO/DERECHO COMPLEX AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SUPPORTING UPSCALE GROWTH.  COMPLEX MOST LIKELY WOULD
FOLLOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEB INTO WESTERN
IA...PROGRESSING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE LATER EVENING.
LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXTENDS ACROSS THE OMAHA AND LINCOLN
METROS AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN EASTERN NEB...AND HAVE ADDED A
CORRIDOR TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE IN WESTERN
IOWA.

HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIP MENTION IN FAR EASTERN CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK EVENT MAINLY WILL BE DONE AND PUSHING EAST OF
THE CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-3AM...WITH JUST SMALL POTENTIAL FOR POST-
MAIN-EVENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER.  OTHERWISE...STABILIZING
AND COOLER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.  BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS KS/MO..PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG AN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB.  IT DOES
APPEAR THAT BOTH AREAS WILL MISS THE CWA...AND HAVE REMOVED PRECIP
MENTION FROM THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN THE WESTERN CWA AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD...AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSE TO THE PROGGED
SURFACE LOW...AND FOLLOWED LATER BY THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.  DRIER...COOLER...AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS THEN
ENCROACHES ON THE CWA FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.  MODELS DO INDICATE PRECIP
RETURNING AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS EVENING OCCURRING ALONG A
THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ACROSS NEB. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SVR
TSRA THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING OVER ERN NEB WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BECOMING TS WIND GUSTS. BTWN 06Z-10Z...TSRA ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU REST OF
WED MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THEN BY WED AFTN.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NEZ015>018-
     030>034-042>045-051>053-066-067.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
     069-079-080-090-091.

&&

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
412 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
412 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. LONG TRACK TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AS A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LOCATED
OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 400 PM WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR LINCOLN TOWARD FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. TORNADOES
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME STREAM AND RIVER
FLOODING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WHILE THERE ARE OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...SATURDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS OVER ALL OF THE REGION SHOULD BE READY FOR ACTIVATION
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
712 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             5 N VALPARAISO          41.15N 96.83W
06/03/2014  E1.75 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
713 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N GLENWOOD            41.08N 95.74W
06/03/2014  M1.00 INCH       MILLS              IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            FELL IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             BRUNO                   41.28N 96.96W
06/03/2014  E0.88 INCH       BUTLER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
715 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
06/03/2014  M3.30 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            STORM TOTAL IN BENSON.

&&

PEARSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
723 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             6 WNW WESTON            41.23N 96.85W
06/03/2014  E3.00 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
725 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     HAIL             4 SW WAHOO              41.17N 96.67W
06/03/2014  M1.75 INCH       SAUNDERS           NE   PUBLIC

&&

PEARSON