Small Craft Advisory 78, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
856 PM PDT FRI JUN 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPS INLAND WILL BE IN
THE 80S AND 90S WHILE THE COAST REMAINS IN THE 60S AND 70S. COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:55 PM PDT FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS NEAR 1500
FEET AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO HOLD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST...COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AND
WARMING THE OVERLYING AIRMASS. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5 TO
10 DEGREES TOMORROW AND THEN WARM AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY INLAND HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 90S. SOME OF
THE WARMER INLAND VALLEYS...SUCH AS THE LIVERMORE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY...WILL LIKELY WARM ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL COMPRESS TO A DEPTH OF LESS THAN 1000 FEET
BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MEAN MOST NIGHT AND MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE OCEAN THIS
WEEKEND. THAT PERSISTENT SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND LACK OF OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MUCH LESS WARMING OVER THE
WEEKEND COMPARED TO INLAND AREAS. HIGHS NEAR THE COAST LIKELY WON'T
CLIMB BEYOND THE 70S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST BY MONDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CA COAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS WILL THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER.
HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANY ONSHORE PUSH OF
MARINE AIR ON MONDAY WILL OCCUR LATE AND WON'T BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG. THUS...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 5:10 PM PDT FRIDAY...STRATUS PERSIST ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A 1500 FT MARINE LAYER. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND TONIGHT WITH RETURN AND CLEARING TIMES SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY EXPECTED. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL EASE BECOMING
LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER 10Z. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
AROUND 15 TO 18 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS FORECAST TO RETURN AROUND
02Z TONIGHT. CLEARING FORECAST BETWEEN 16Z-17Z SATURDAY MORNING.
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 02:00 PM PDT FRIDAY...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY EVENING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
AND WEST OF POINT REYES. MEANWHILE MUCH LIGHTER WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF POINT REYES AND ALONG THE COAST.
A LOCALLY STRONG SEABREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 AM UNTIL 6
                   AM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 AM
             SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: BELL

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