Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
224 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...The main line which produced widespread thunderstorms
across western Montana today has passed eastward across the
Continental Divide this afternoon. Therefore, the main threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds
has ended for western Montana and north central Idaho. That being
said, the main area of low pressure is just beginning to lift
northeastward towards the Canadian border. With the low still
moving through the region, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue across the region through the evening. While these
should not become severe, they will still be capable of very heavy
rain and could continue to pose a threat to flood prone areas and
burn scars.

The low pressure system will continue to move into Canada
tomorrow. A very moist atmosphere will be left in its wake,
producing favorable conditions for fog and low stratus development
on Saturday morning. Locations which received the heaviest
precipitation could have some significant visibility reductions
through the morning. Tomorrow afternoon, showers are expected to
develop once again, mainly across northwest Montana. Showers could
still be heavy rain producers.

A warm up is expected beginning Sunday through Tuesday, with
fairly dry conditions returning to the region. Winds are expected
to become breezy Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching upper
level trough of low pressure.

Forecast models continue to indicate a pattern change mid to late
next week, which would bring possibly significantly cooler
temperatures and moisture to the region. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue to be a threat across all of western Montana and north
central Idaho. The main threat with these storms will be frequent
lightning and very heavy rain, which could cause low visibility
and poor ceilings at times. Thunderstorms are expected to end this
evening, with the main threat to aviation transitioning to the
potential for the development of fog and low stratus. This will
especially be true for locations which received intense rainfall
today, such as KGPI, especially towards morning.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ002-007-043-160030-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION-WEST GLACIER
REGION-
536 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLATHEAD...EASTERN
MISSOULA AND NORTHWESTERN POWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 530 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEELEY LAKE...OR 26 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MISSOULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER
ALONG ROADWAYS ALSO VERY POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SEELEY LAKE...OVANDO
AND WOODWORTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4690 11354 4719 11376 4763 11314 4757 11310
      4749 11311 4748 11305 4720 11305 4718 11304
      4719 11280 4718 11279 4706 11279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 231DEG 28KT 4712 11350

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
542 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ001-160045-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-
542 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLATHEAD AND
NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 536 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF EUREKA...OR 35 MILES NORTHEAST
OF LIBBY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADWAYS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...EUREKA...FORTINE AND
REXFORD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4901 11524 4901 11491 4865 11477 4859 11501
      4901 11539 4902 11538 4902 11525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 150DEG 10KT 4872 11497

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
649 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

MTZ007-160145-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION-
649 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SILVER BOW COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
MDT...

AT 642 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DIVIDE...OR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUTTE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING AND PONDING ON
ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUTTE...SILVER BOW...
WALKERVILLE...JANNEY...NEWCOMB...RAMSAY AND NISSLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4575 11250 4567 11255 4562 11270 4575 11278
      4580 11300 4583 11304 4618 11251 4613 11251
      4608 11245 4605 11246 4603 11243 4585 11241
      4576 11220 4574 11219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 204DEG 34KT 4576 11276