Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2014

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible through this evening...

...Heavy rain producing thunderstorms may threaten burn scars...

.DISCUSSION...A slow moving upper level wave will move across
western Montana by Tuesday. Ahead of this wave thunderstorms will
form across the higher terrain between central Idaho and western
Montana. A few storms may become strong to severe with hail,
strong winds, localized heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. If
the storms are able to move over recent burn scars including the
West Mullan, Lolo Creek and Mustang areas, then flash flooding is
definitely possible. Have flash flood watches out for those areas
through tonight. Also have a flash flood watch out for Glacier
National Park including the Going-To-The-Sun Road.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight with the biggest
threat being heavy rain especially across the Continental Divide
into northwest Montana.

The upper level disturbance will continue to move out of the
region on Tuesday causing northwesterly flow. This flow will cause
cooler air to move into the area, which should keep temperatures 5
degrees below normal. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated across southwest Montana on Tuesday afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will rebound Wednesday into Thursday
causing a return to hot and dry conditions for the Northern
Rockies. Latest model runs are indicating the flattening of the
ridge for Friday into the weekend. A weak disturbance appears to
move along the border this weekend, but the timing and strength is
uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have already begun
to form across much of western Montana and north central Idaho
this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is only going to increase
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms
will be capable of heavy rain locally lowering visibility,
frequent lightning, hail and gusty erratic winds. The strongest
storms are expected near KBTM and KSMN likely between 14/2100z and
15/0000z. KMSO and KGPI could also experience thunderstorms though
the strength is still somewhat in question. Thunderstorms near
KGPI could last until later in the evening, possibly as late as
15/0600z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

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